Monthly Archive: May 2023

Independent economist Ren Zeping has suggested that China introduce a timetable to ban the sale of fuel cars within five years and have regions south of Hebei actively develop the new energy sector.

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A prominent economist is proposing that China should ban the sale of conventional fuel cars within five years, sparking widespread discussion on social media.

Independent economist Ren Zeping said on Weibo today that he suggested China introduce a timetable for a ban on fuel cars within five years and for the region south of Hebei to actively develop the new energy sector.

He hinted that this is a move China needs to make to reach its carbon peak and carbon-neutral targets, as well as to expand domestic demand.

The words have generated a lot of discussions, with many opposing voices in the Weibo comments section, some of whom say that fuel car production and sales could also expand domestic demand.

Ren used to work for China's national think tank, as chief macro analyst at Guotai Junan and chief economist at Evergrande Group. He is currently an independent economist and has set up his own studio.

China does not currently have a national timetable for banning fuel cars, although the southernmost province of Hainan did so last year.

A carbon peak implementation plan released by the provincial government on August 22, 2022, said that by 2030, the sale of fuel cars will be completely banned across Hainan.

By then, vehicles in Hainan's public services and operations will be fully powered by clean energy, except for special uses, the plan said, adding that 100 percent of new and replacement vehicles in the private sector will be new energy vehicles (NEVs).

The document does not specify, though in China, NEVs generally refer to pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell cars.

China previously set a goal of seeing NEVs contribute 25 percent of all new vehicle sales by 2025, but that goal was met ahead of schedule last year.

For the full year 2022, China sold 5.67 million new energy passenger vehicles at retail, contributing 27.6 percent of all passenger vehicle retail sales of 20.54 million units, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

In April, China's retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 527,000 units, with a penetration rate of 32.3 percent.

By December 2025, NEVs will account for more than 80 percent of all new vehicle sales in China, Li Xiang, founder, chairman and CEO of Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI), said on April 24.

Ren has previously posted bullish comments on China's NEV industry, saying on December 31, 2021, that the NEV industry will be the most promising replacement for the real estate, heavy industry and chemical sectors as the most important engine of growth for China's economy.

The NEV industry was growing at a rate of several times, bringing a fast-growing penetration rate, while taking into account the market size of the industries associated with it, a large number of fuel vehicles will be replaced by NEVs in the next decade or longer, he said at the time.

China's Hainan to completely ban sales of ICE vehicles by 2030

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