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Daily Archive: May 10, 2023
Li Auto Q1 earnings: Deutsche Bank’s first look
The true test will be how sustainable this run-rate is in the second half of this year, Edison Yu's team said. | Li Auto US | Li Auto HK
Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) today reported first-quarter earnings that beat expectations, and Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their first look in a research note sent to investors.
Without further ado, here's what the team's research note had to say.
Li Auto delivered mostly strong 1Q results along with a solid volume outlook. Deliveries were already reported for 1Q at 52,584 units, leading to revenue of 18.7bn RMB, beating our 17.7bn forecast due to higher ASPs.
Impressively, while volume was toward the low-end of guidance, sales were above the high-end despite mix headwinds.
Total gross margin of 20.4% was slightly below our 20.7% estimate on softer vehicle margin of 19.8% (-20bps QoQ; vs. our 20.5%), suggesting that launch costs were heavier and/or BOM of new models may be greater than anticipated as pricing didn't flow through.
Opex of 3.5bn was below our expectation, mainly due to lower R&D, leading to higher-than-expected net profit; adjusted EPS was 1.35, easily ahead of DBe/consensus, helped by higher interest/ investment and other income (>30c benefit).
Free cash flow came in just below 7bn, materially better than anticipated, mainly due to working capital performance on payables.
Management provided solid 2Q guidance calling for 76,000-81,000 in deliveries, ahead of our 75,000 forecast, implying a small step-up from April's 25,681 units.
The company already expressed confidence in reaching 25,000-30,000 deliveries this month once the cheaper L7 and L8 "Air" trims garner a full month of availability.
The true test will be how sustainable this run-rate is in the 2H. We have seen the L9/L8 drop off somewhat in monthly volume already.
Revenue is expected to be 24.22-25.86bn RMB in 2Q, above DBe/consensus estimates and implying slightly better ASP/mix than our model.
Li Auto sees Q1 revenue beat expectations, net income up 252% from Q4
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Fisker Cuts 2023 Production Forecast On Underwhelming Q1 Results
The EV startup cut its production guidance for the full year to 32,000-36,000 Ocean SUVs, down from an earlier target of 42,400.
NEV demand in China expected to pick up in Q2, analysts say
Demand for NEVs is expected to pick up in the second quarter as lithium carbonate prices stabilize, according to analysts at CITIC Securities.
Chinese consumers' wait-and-see sentiment when it comes to buying new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to ease significantly in the second quarter, which will facilitate a recovery in demand for the sector, local analysts said.
In the first quarter, China's overall NEV sales growth slowed as demand was overdrawn before subsidies for NEV purchases were withdrawn late last year, coupled with strong consumer wait-and-see sentiment, said CITIC Securities analyst Yuan Jiancong's team in a research note today.
For consumers, the sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices and price cuts by automakers have fueled their wait-and-see, according to the team.
In the second quarter, demand for NEVs is expected to pick up as lithium carbonate prices stabilize, the team said.
China's state subsidy for NEV purchases expired at the end of last year. To take advantage of the subsidy, some consumers who had planned to buy vehicles in 2023 may have advanced their purchase plans, leading to weak NEV sales in the first quarter.
Retail NEV sales in China were about 1.32 million units in the first quarter, up 23.72 percent year-on-year, but down 26.62 percent from the fourth quarter, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
In addition to the withdrawal of subsidies, the price of lithium carbonate, a key raw material for batteries, has continued to fall since the end of last year, with some electric vehicle companies beginning to cut prices and subsequently seeing a price war across the auto industry.
As of April 21, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate had not seen a single-day gain this year, falling 65 percent from the beginning of the year.
After that, the price of lithium carbonate has largely stabilized, and as of today, battery grade lithium carbonate has risen for the eighth day in a row.
($1 = RMB 6.9266)
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Tesla Produces 5000 Model Y In One Week In Texas & Launches Lithium Refining Site
Tesla is on a roll this week. To keep up with its almost constantly growing sales, Tesla has been ramping up Model Y production at sites around the world. It has also just broken ground on a lithium refinery project. The big news on both fronts this week comes from The Lone Star State. (Unfortunately, […]
Fisker Ocean off-roader bows as 2023 target lowered, Pear delayed
Fisker on Tuesday revealed a new “hard core” off-road package for the Ocean electric SUV—the same day the company also revealed some realities that included lower anticipated production numbers of the Ocean this year, as well as a delay of its Pear EV. The off-road version, called Force E and available starting in the fourth... Tesla Apr sales breakdown in China: Model 3 at 13,196 units, Model Y 26,760
From January to April, the Model Y sold 121,407 units, making it the second-best-selling new energy SUV in China during this period. | TSLA.US
Tesla's retail sales in China in April included 13,196 Model 3 electric sedans and 26,760 Model Y electric crossovers, according to data released today by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
Figures released earlier this month by the CPCA show that Tesla sold 75,842 China-made vehicles in April, including 35,886 units exported.
That means Tesla delivered 39,956 vehicles in China in April, with 47.32 percent of the vehicles produced at the Shanghai plant being exported.
The US electric vehicle maker's plant in Shanghai currently only produces the Model 3 as well as the Model Y. Including exports, the two models sold 26,783 and 49,059 units in April, respectively, according to the CPCA.
Today's figures mean that Tesla's Shanghai plant exported 13,587 China-made Model 3s and 22,299 China-made Model Ys in April.
In China, Model Y sales in April were up 2,687.50 percent from 960 units in the same month last year, but down 51.29 percent from 54,937 units in March.
Model 3 sales in China in April were up 2,290.58 percent from 552 units a year ago, but down 39.26 percent from 21,726 units in March.
These changes are due to the fact that Tesla's sales in China fell sharply last April due to the Covid lockdown in Shanghai, and its pattern of producing vehicles primarily for export in the first half of each quarter.
In the rankings released today by the CPCA, the Model Y was the third best-selling new energy SUV in April.
BYD Song and BYD Yuan Plus were the top 2 best-selling new energy SUVs in April with 33,007 and 28,931 retail sales, respectively.
From January to April, the Model Y sold 121,407 units, up 60.5 percent year-on-year, and was the second best-selling new energy SUV during this period, according to the CPCA's rankings.
The BYD Song was the top-selling new energy SUV from January to April, with 174,422 units, up 83.0 percent year-on-year.
Among the top 10 new energy sedans in April, the Tesla Model 3 came in at No. 7, while NIO's (NYSE: NIO) ET5 sedan failed to make the list.
Among the top retail sales of new energy sedans from January to April, the Tesla Model 3 ranked No. 5, while the BYD Qin ranked No. 1 with 130,602 units.
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See How The Kia EV9 Was Tested To Ensure It Can Withstand Extreme Cold
The South Korean carmaker put the battery conditioning feature through its paces.
Mercedes-AMG EQS 53 By Brabus Has 7 Percent More Range, $327,000 Price Tag
There's no power upgrade, too.
Li Auto sees Q1 revenue beat expectations, net income up 252% from Q4
Li Auto expects to deliver between 76,000 and 81,000 vehicles in the second quarter, meaning a total of 50,319 to 55,319 vehicles for May and June. | Li Auto US | Li Auto HK
Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) saw revenue beat expectations in the first quarter and net income rose sharply from the previous quarter.
The company reported revenue of RMB 18.79 billion yuan ($2.74 billion) in the first quarter, beating analysts' estimates of 18.68 billion yuan in a Bloomberg survey, according to unaudited financial results released today.
That's up 96.55 percent from a year ago and up 6.46 percent from the fourth quarter, and also above the upper end of the previous guidance range of 17.45 billion yuan to RMB 18.45 billion.
Previous data show that Li Auto delivered a record 52,584 vehicles in the first quarter, which is near the lower end of the 52,000 to 55,000 vehicle guidance range it previously provided.
Li Auto reported a net income of RMB 933.8 million in the first quarter, compared to a net loss of RMB 10.9 million in the same period last year, an increase of 252.0 percent from a net income of RMB 265.3 million in the fourth quarter.
It reported non-GAAP net income of RMB 1.41 billion in the first quarter, an increase of 196.4 percent year-on-year and up 46.1 percent over the fourth quarter.
Li Auto had net cash from operating activities of RMB 7.78 billion in the first quarter, an increase of 324.3 percent from the same period last year and up 58.0 percent from the fourth quarter.
The company's vehicle sales for the first quarter were RMB 18.33 billion, up 96.9 percent from the same quarter last year and 6.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2022.
Li Auto's gross margin was 20.4 percent in the first quarter, compared to 22.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022 and 20.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The decrease in gross margin compared to the same period of last year was primarily caused by a decrease in vehicle margin.
It had a vehicle margin of 19.8 percent in the first quarter compared to 22.4 percent in the same quarter last year and 20.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022.
The decrease in vehicle margin from the first quarter of 2022 was primarily due to a different product mix between the two quarters, Li Auto said.
It reported a gross profit of RMB 3.83 billion for the quarter, up 77.0 percent year-on-year and up 7.4 percent from the fourth quarter.
Li Auto expects second-quarter vehicle deliveries to be in the range of 76,000 to 81,000 units, implying a year-on-year increase of 164.9 percent to 182.4 percent.
It expects total revenue for the second quarter to be between RMB 24.22 billion and RMB 25.86 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 177.4 percent to 196.1 percent.
Considering that Li Auto delivered a record 25,681 vehicles in April, the guidance implies that it expects to deliver a total of 50,319 to 55,319 vehicles in May and June.
As of March 31, Li Auto's balance of cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, time deposits and short-term investments was RMB 65 billion.
Li Auto CEO predicts China NEV penetration to exceed 80% by Dec 2025
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