Smart and Sustainable Electric Mobility
"We expect a somewhat messy quarter due to accelerated phase-out of the Li ONE materially hurting margins," Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team said.
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There are no major concerns about XPeng regarding liquidity in the near term and there is still time to win back market share, according to Edison Yu's team.
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Fab 5 China EV sales came in stronger than expected as new product cycles at Li Auto and NIO really start to kick in, leading to record monthly volumes despite a weak macro backdrop, said Edison Yu's team.
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"We think a large part of the rally was caused by a short squeeze as investors were caught being too negative on the group given Covid and competition concerns," said Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team.
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XPeng delivered better-than-expected third-quarter operating results, accompanied by a slightly better-than-feared outlook.
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Morgan Stanley sees the price of lithium carbonate in China falling to $47,500 per ton in the second half of 2023, implying a 35 percent drop from the current spot.
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The key to XPeng regaining relevance is winning back demand, and that could take several quarters, creating significant uncertainty heading into 2023.
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Edison Yu's team predicts NIO will deliver 13,500 units in November and 19,500 units in December.
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