Smart and Sustainable Electric Mobility
China EV stocks are up an average of 20 percent year-to-date but have underperformed China tech ADRs since December, likely due to investor concerns about weak first-quarter sales and increased competition, according to Edison Yu's team.
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By fighting for volume, XPeng's gross margins will take a hit as costs are not materially lower, Edison Yu's team said.
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On a full-year basis, the reopening of China will have a positive impact on consumer sentiment and should boost vehicle production and sales in the second quarter, said Edison Yu's team.
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After a disappointing 2022, some tailwinds will drive a recovery in retail sales and production in the Chinese auto sector in 2023, Goldman Sachs said.
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"The short is answer is yes but we share investor frustration following the guidance cut last week," Edison Yu's team wrote.
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Li Auto showed strong execution and sequential growth, while Zeekr's sales performance was the biggest positive surprise of last year, said Edison Yu's team.
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Major automakers including BYD, Tesla, NIO, and Li Auto were relatively unaffected, as they all have a certain level of order backlog, according to CICC.
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"Going into year-end, we see several potential positive developments for NIO," said Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu.
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The sharp decline in gross margin was due to a huge hit of $803 million from inventory provisioning and loss of purchase commitments related to the accelerated phase-out of Li ONE.
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"We expect a somewhat messy quarter due to accelerated phase-out of the Li ONE materially hurting margins," Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team said.
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