Smart and Sustainable Electric Mobility
CICC expects the first quarter to contribute 15.7 percent of China's 2023 NEV sales, with 20.7 percent, 27.6 percent and 35.9 percent from the second to fourth quarters, respectively.
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China EV stocks are up an average of 20 percent year-to-date but have underperformed China tech ADRs since December, likely due to investor concerns about weak first-quarter sales and increased competition, according to Edison Yu's team.
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By fighting for volume, XPeng's gross margins will take a hit as costs are not materially lower, Edison Yu's team said.
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On a full-year basis, the reopening of China will have a positive impact on consumer sentiment and should boost vehicle production and sales in the second quarter, said Edison Yu's team.
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After a disappointing 2022, some tailwinds will drive a recovery in retail sales and production in the Chinese auto sector in 2023, Goldman Sachs said.
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"The short is answer is yes but we share investor frustration following the guidance cut last week," Edison Yu's team wrote.
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Li Auto showed strong execution and sequential growth, while Zeekr's sales performance was the biggest positive surprise of last year, said Edison Yu's team.
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Major automakers including BYD, Tesla, NIO, and Li Auto were relatively unaffected, as they all have a certain level of order backlog, according to CICC.
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"Going into year-end, we see several potential positive developments for NIO," said Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu.
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The sharp decline in gross margin was due to a huge hit of $803 million from inventory provisioning and loss of purchase commitments related to the accelerated phase-out of Li ONE.
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