Smart and Sustainable Electric Mobility
The team calls NIO management's long-term strategy the Blue Sky Blueprint, saying it will be a moat for the EV maker, though it's very costly to build.
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"Even if we exclude these one-time headwinds, vehicle of margin of 13.5% would have been a miss and lowest since 2Q20," Deutsche Bank said.
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Fitch expects sales of passenger NEVs in China to grow by more than 30 percent in 2023, while ICE vehicles will decline by the low teens.
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Deutsche Bank expects the latest round of price cuts to spur a big rebound in EV orders, with at least eight automakers already offering some type of price discount or promotion so far.
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CICC expects the first quarter to contribute 15.7 percent of China's 2023 NEV sales, with 20.7 percent, 27.6 percent and 35.9 percent from the second to fourth quarters, respectively.
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China EV stocks are up an average of 20 percent year-to-date but have underperformed China tech ADRs since December, likely due to investor concerns about weak first-quarter sales and increased competition, according to Edison Yu's team.
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By fighting for volume, XPeng's gross margins will take a hit as costs are not materially lower, Edison Yu's team said.
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On a full-year basis, the reopening of China will have a positive impact on consumer sentiment and should boost vehicle production and sales in the second quarter, said Edison Yu's team.
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After a disappointing 2022, some tailwinds will drive a recovery in retail sales and production in the Chinese auto sector in 2023, Goldman Sachs said.
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"The short is answer is yes but we share investor frustration following the guidance cut last week," Edison Yu's team wrote.
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