Category: XPeng

XPeng sees new milestone in autonomous driving, rolls out Tesla FSD-like assisted driving capability to 2 flagship models

's XNGP system will enable full-scenario ADAS from start to stop when the full rollout is completed in 2024, it said.  |  XPeng US | XPeng HK

(Image credit: XPeng)

XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) is making its FSD (Full )-like Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) available for two flagship models, marking significant progress in building its assisted driving capabilities.

The electric vehicle maker will begin pushing out a new OTA update, Xmart OS 4.2.0, today, opening up the first phase capabilities of XNGP, XPeng's new generation of intelligent driving systems, to the XPeng G9 and P7i.

XPeng concluded its six-day Mission X 2023 XNGP challenge test drive today with an XNGP technology sharing session in Shanghai, where the plan was announced by Wu Xinzhou, vice president and head of the autonomous driving center at XPeng.

XNGP is XPeng's new generation intelligent driving system and is the ultimate product form of assisted driving before achieving full self-driving, the company said.

In its full form, the XNGP system will not rely on high-precision maps and will enable an assisted driving experience from the starting parking space to the end parking space.

XPeng has been testing the capability on the P5 sedan, which comes with a feature called City NGP (City Navigation Guided Pilot). The function is already available for the P5 in Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

XNGP has achieved the first phase of capability, gaining City NGP capability for the G9 Max and P7i Max in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, three cities with high precision map coverage, according to XPeng.

The second phase of XNGP, which XPeng will launch in the second half of 2023, will see full lane-changing, overtaking and left/right turn capabilities extended to major Chinese cities without high precision maps, while full-scenario ADAS is planned for 2024.

When the full rollout of the XNGP system is completed in 2024, it will enable full-scenario ADAS from start to stop, the company said.

In other cities without high-precision map coverage, XNGP also significantly improves assisted driving capabilities, according to the company.

With City NGP available, vehicles can achieve navigation-assisted driving from point A to point B within the city in areas with high-precision map coverage in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shanghai.

This includes vehicles autonomously completing cruise following, overtaking, and bypassing stationary vehicles or objects, as well as enabling stoplight recognition, autonomous lane changes, and avoidance of other traffic participants.

In addition to the G9 Max and P7i Max models equipped with XNGP, City NGP will also be available for XPeng P5 in Shanghai.

In areas without high-precision map coverage, XPeng aims to give vehicles the ability to make left and right turns in most major cities later this year, bringing the user experience in those areas closer to City NGP, the company said.

Notably, in addition to City NGP, XPeng is also building a next-generation Highway NGP, Wu said at today's event.

The new Highway NGP is based on XNGP's next-generation technology architecture, which offers significant improvements in security, usability, comfort, access efficiency, and interaction methods, according to Wu.

XPeng's development of the new Highway NGP is progressing as expected and is set to be available to users with the XNGP system in the next major OTA update, Wu said.

Players in the assisted driving space are currently building products that largely rely on high-precision maps for navigation-assisted driving, although many of them aim to eventually move away from them.

XPeng has built XNet, a deep visual neural network that does not rely on high precision maps and relies only on pure visual perception, the first and only mass-produced BEV perception system in China, it said.

XNet is capable of fusing data collected by multiple cameras to output 4D information about dynamic targets and 3D information about static targets, according to the company.

In the future, drivers will not need to be restricted by the area of high-precision maps and will be able to enjoy high-level assisted driving experience in more cities and scenarios faster, XPeng said.

XPeng is one of the few players to mention that it will move away from reliance on high-precision maps.

Earlier this month, DeepRoute, a local self-driving company backed by Alibaba, unveiled its new Driver 3.0 solution, which it said is a solution that does not require high-precision maps and breaks down the limitations imposed by geo-fencing.

In addition to bringing better assisted driving capabilities, XPeng's latest OTA update brings 27 new features, 52 experience optimizations and more than 40 basic experience enhancements, according to the company.

XPeng revs up for comeback after ending 2022 in the slow lane

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The common feature of NIO, Li Auto, XPeng’s mobile apps? Pretty girls!

and 's mobile apps have been featuring pretty girls significantly more often lately, while is running a campaign to encourage users to share such content on its app.

Whenever we open the NIO (NYSE: NIO) mobile app to see what's going on at the company, there are always posts with lots of pictures of pretty girls on the front page.

This practice has been seen occasionally before, but has become more frequent this year with the large deliveries of the ET5 sedan.

We found a similar practice after taking a deeper look at the mobile apps of Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) and XPeng (NYSE: XPEV), with the latter launching a campaign to encourage ladies to make similar posts.

The NIO App is a great source for monitoring information about NIO and a great way for many people to learn about the company's developments and vehicle models.

The app has probably the largest number of users of any Chinese carmaker, and may even surpass many popular apps from local tech giants.

As of December 12, 2022, the NIO App had accumulated more than 5 million registered users, Qin Lihong, the company's co-founder and president, said in a media communication late last year.

Qin said at the time that NIO App had more than 380,000 daily active users and could reach more than 400,000 at its peak.

"Now many people treat NIO App as a vertical media, and a popular one. Not only the content shared by NIO users, but I believe you can also get a lot of industry information, including the latest news, from our app," Qin said.

Before this year, pretty girls didn't appear in the NIO App very often, perhaps because the company had previously been delivering models with high prices and targeted mainly a relatively affluent demographic.

With the mass delivery of the ET5, which targets a younger demographic, pretty girls are appearing significantly more often in the NIO App.

In January-February, NIO delivered 20,663 vehicles, of which the ET5 contributed 12,266, or 59 percent, according to data monitored by CnEVPost.

More than half of NIO owners are ladies, and 83.9 percent have a bachelor's degree, according to a report released last month by local market research firm Sino Monitor.

The Li Auto App shows a similar picture, especially as deliveries of the new SUV Li L7 begin.

Li Auto targets family users, and the Li L9 and Li L8 are both six-seat models. The large space and well-considered details make them a must-consider option for many families with children when purchasing a car.

Before this year, the Li Auto App showcased posts shared from users that essentially described how the vehicles had worked for their families.

But as deliveries of the company's first five-seat SUV, the Li L7, begin this month, there are more posts with photos of pretty girls, although the company is still emphasizing that the SUV is still aimed at families.

There are relatively fewer posts with photos of pretty girls in XPeng's mobile app, but that doesn't mean the company doesn't want to recommend such content.

Earlier this month, the company posted a thread on the XPeng App calling on female car owners to share their experiences with their cars, and prizes will be awarded for the best content.

The campaign runs from March 2 to March 31, and XPeng will announce which ones have won rewards on April 5.

Understandably, NIO, Li Auto and XPeng are doing this. After all, articles with pictures of pretty girls are more likely to attract readers to click on them, thus increasing people's understanding of their products.

NIO and Li Auto have done better in this regard, in large part perhaps because their helmsmen were previously the founders of two of China's largest automotive media outlets.

Li Xiang, the founder, chairman and CEO of Li Auto, is the founder of Auto Home, and William Li, the founder, chairman and CEO of NIO, is the founder of Yiche. The websites of these two auto media outlets attract tens of millions of users every day, and posts with pictures of pretty girls are common.

Here are screenshots of some of the content recommended on the NIO App homepage.

Here are screenshots of some of the content recommended on the Li Auto App homepage.

Below are screenshots of some of the content from the XPeng App.

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China NEV insurance registrations for week ending Mar 26: BYD 43,490, Tesla 15,886, NIO 1,909

is on track to reach its guidance, with 9,199 vehicles registered in the past four weeks.

Insurance registrations for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China continued to increase last week compared to the previous week, although the performance of major automakers was mixed.

For the week ending March 26, insurance registrations for all passenger vehicles in China were 400,400 units, up 37.64 percent year-on-year and up 29.02 percent from the previous week, according to information shared today by several auto bloggers on Weibo and WeChat groups.

Among them, the number of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles was 272,100, up 43.50 percent year-on-year and up 37.64 percent from the previous week.

Insurance registrations for NEVs were 128,300, up 26.63 percent year-on-year and up 13.89 percent from the previous week. This means that the penetration rate of NEVs was 32 percent last week.

(OTCMKTS: BYDDY) NEVs registered 43,490 units last week, up from 38,414 units the week before. In the first and second weeks of March, BYD's numbers were 38,932 and 37,141 units, respectively.

(NASDAQ: TSLA) saw 15,886 units for the week, down from 18,712 units the week before. Insurance registrations for Tesla vehicles in China were 13,266 and 17,032 in the first and second weeks of March, respectively.

This means that over the past four weeks, Tesla vehicles have had 64,896 insurance registrations in China.

If Tesla vehicles register the same number of insurance units this week as last week, it may deliver a record number of vehicles in China in March, surpassing the 77,938 units delivered in June 2022.

Tesla has a factory in Shanghai that makes the Model 3 and the Model Y. Its pattern is to produce cars for export in the first half of the quarter and for the local market in the second half.

NIO (NYSE: NIO) vehicles had 1,909 insurance registrations last week, up from 1,775 the week before. The company's insurance registration figures for the first and second weeks of March were 3,345 and 2,170, respectively.

NIO guided earlier this month for first-quarter deliveries of between 31,000 and 33,000 vehicles, meaning that March deliveries are expected to be between 10,337 and 12,337.

NIO is on track to meet its guidance, with 9,199 vehicles registered for insurance in the last four weeks, although the first week of March included the last two days of February.

(NYSE: XPEV) vehicles had 1,564 insurance registrations last week, up from 1,296 the previous week. The number was 1,421 and 1,635 in the first and second weeks, respectively, for a four-week total of 5,916 vehicles.

XPeng previously guided for first-quarter vehicle deliveries of 18,000 to 19,000 units, meaning March deliveries are expected to be between 6,772 and 7,772 units.

(NASDAQ: LI) vehicles saw 5,081 insurance registrations last week, down from 5,438 the week before. It posted figures of 3,222 and 4,243 for the first and second weeks of March, respectively, for a four-week total of 17,984 vehicles.

Li Auto guided for first-quarter deliveries of 52,000 to 55,000 vehicles, implying a year-on-year increase of 64.0 percent to 73.4 percent.

Li Auto's guidance of 52,000 to 55,000 vehicles for the first quarter implies March deliveries are expected to be 20,239 to -23,239 vehicles.

had 2,934 insurance registrations last week, and its numbers for the first three weeks of March were 4,109, 988, and 515, respectively.

was at 1,214 units last week, and that figure was 1,814, 1,043, and 913 units in the first three weeks.

China NEV insurance registrations for week ending Mar 19: BYD 38,414, Tesla 18,712, NIO 1,775

Weekly NEV insurance registrations in China in 2023

WkBYDTeslaNIOXPengLi AutoBMWZeekrNetaNEVAll
03/20-03/2643,49015,8861,9091,5645,0811,2142,934128,300400,400
03/13-03/1938,41418,7121,7751,2965,4381,847913515689112,650310,341
03/06-03/1237,14117,0322,1701,6354,2431,4861,043988522107,767308,726
02/27-03/0538,93213,2663,3451,4213,2221,6631,8144,109515116,238345,340
02/20-02/2639,47310,7053,3571,6855,3871,7921,8552,152401111,983331,238
02/13-02/1937,0265,9133,1741,4634,2382,2711,4431,038329100,408303,101
02/06-02/1231,4176,9633,0451,3964,0626825471,170NA85,572280,741
01/30-02/0524,2808,6431,9489752,2405935543,96411469,692267,843
01/23-01/295,2803,356427210990NA89NANA17,94592,600
01/16-01/2224,7087,4963,0081,0684,903NA657NANA67,500330,400
01/09-01/1540,42012,6542,9631,8174,5272,6871,35942023799,041438,000
01/02-01/0835,9242,1102,8181,5513,7042,1031,5112388077,000290,000

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XPeng revs up for comeback after ending 2022 in the slow lane

forecast its deliveries would drop about 46% in the first quarter, but expects to rebound in the second half with a steady stream of new product launches.  |  XPeng US | XPeng HK

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

This article by Trevor Mo was first published in The Bamboo Works, which provides news on Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong and the United States, with a strong focus on mid-cap and also pre-IPO companies.

Key Takeaways:

  • Former highflyer XPeng's electric vehicle deliveries grew just 23% last year, down from the triple-digit growth in the previous two years
  • Management says things will improve this year, but first the company must survive a bloody price war throttling China's EV sector

Last year was a tough one for former electric vehicle (EV) highflyer XPeng Inc. (XPEV.US, 9868.HK), which stumbled badly in the second half of the year on a series of major missteps. But investors seem to be buying into the company's newly detailed comeback story, driving up its valuation ratios past its top two rivals in the days after its latest results announcement.

Only time will tell if the rally is justified, following a dismal 2022 that XPeng would probably rather forget. In the race for buyers in China's ultra-competitive electric vehicle (EV) market, XPeng spent last year falling further behind its two main rivals, (LI.US; 2015.HK) and (NIO.US; 9866.HK), as its losses also ballooned.

XPeng's revenue rose by a modest 28% to 27 billion yuan ($3.9 billion) for all 2022, according to its latest earnings report issued earlier this month. Its vehicle deliveries for the year rose by a similar 23% to 120,757 units, slowing sharply from the triple-digit growth in the previous two years. The company's net loss nearly doubled to 9 billion yuan, despite a drop in both sales and marketing and R&D expenses.

The annual slowdown covered up fourth-quarter results that looked far worse as the company rapidly lost momentum in the second half of the year. Its revenue fell 40% year-on-year during the quarter to 5.14 billion yuan, as its vehicle sales tumbled by an even larger 47%.

XPeng's vehicle deliveries for the year put it behind Li Auto and NIO, which delivered 133,246 and 122,486 units in 2022, respectively, according to their latest annual reports. XPeng fell to third in the race among that trio, all venture-funded startups, after leading the other two in 2021 with 98,155 EV deliveries, versus 90,500 for Li Auto and 91,400 for NIO.

XPeng's reversal of fortune owed to a series of missteps. The biggest was a sort of “identity crisis” for its flagship product, its midsize G9 SUV, which launched last September. The G9 was sold as a series with a range of prices from as little as 309,900 yuan to as much as 469,999 yuan, based on different configurations, such as driving range and software capability.

Such a strategy was meant to impress customers by offering a wide range of options. But it failed to make a splash, and the G9 sold a dismal 6,189 units in the final quarter of last year – a far cry from the 35,000 units XPeng had aimed to deliver by the end of 2022.

XPeng is grappling with a lack of consistency in its marketing strategy, said Wang Cun, an analyst with the China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA). "Its G9 models seek to target high-end customers with two of its largest competitors – NIO and Li Auto – in mind. But it definitely has yet to build up a high-end brand awareness among customers," said Wang.

Comeback brewing?

Despite the poor performance, investors greeted XPeng's latest earnings with enthusiasm. The company's shares ended up 6% the day of the announcement, and continued gaining in the following days. Its Hong Kong close of HK$9.62 last Friday was 15% higher than where it traded before its earnings release on March 17.

That rally lifted XPeng's shares to a price to sales (P/S) ratio to just over 4 times, ahead of NIO and Li Auto, at 2 and 3.37 times, respectively. Investors may have been encouraged by XPeng Chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng's positive outlook for 2023 after the difficulties in 2022.

"I believe XPeng is approaching an inflection point," said He, predicting a comeback for the company this year. "As we have clearly identified what our goals are and what our strengths and weaknesses are, we're now building recovery momentum in our sales and market share expansion."

He said XPeng had implemented a series of strategy adjustments to help regain its previous momentum. Central to that is an ongoing company restructuring, which began last October after the disappointing G9 rollout.

The restructuring aims to give XPeng a "flatter and more concentrated structure," He said, using a term that often implies layoffs through elimination of middle-management jobs.

But even if it can create a leaner, more efficient company, XPeng's road to recovery will be pocked with obstacles created by external market factors.

Most notably, China's EV market has started to slow considerably after several years of rapid expansion. New-energy vehicle (NEV) sales in China reached 933,000 units in the first two months this year.

That was up just 20.8% year-on-year, marking a sharp slowdown from a near doubling in sales for all of last year, after the expiration of national subsidies for NEV purchases at the end of 2022, according to the latest data from China Association of Automobile Manufactures.

The sharp slowdown touched off a price war that has rapidly heated up. It started with price cuts by (TSLA.US) late last year, which were quickly followed by nearly all major brands in China. Analysts have warned the price war could spark a long-anticipated consolidation in the Chinese EV industry, wiping out less competitive and smaller players.

XPeng hasn't been spared from the price war's effects, announcing discounts of up to 36,000 yuan for some of its models in late January. But those cuts have yet to translate to greater sales.

The company expects its vehicle deliveries to plummet 45% to 47.9% year-on-year during the current quarter to around 18,000 to 19,000 units, similar to the fourth-quarter decline rate, He said.

He added XPeng expects its deliveries to gradually pick up in the second half of the year with its launch of new models. Among those, the P7i – a new generation sedan to complement its earlier P7 model – started delivery this month. The company will also start shipping a G6 compact SUV in June, and a seven-seat multipurpose vehicle in the second half of the year.

CADA's Wang believes XPeng could stand a chance of catching its rivals, but only if it moves swiftly to rectify some of its missteps. Despite the difficult road ahead, Wang said XPeng is in a relatively good position to survive the current price war, with over 38 billion yuan in cash and short-term investments at the end of 2022.

XPeng Q4 earnings call: Key points of transcript

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XPeng begins P7i deliveries in China

's store traffic and test drives have reached new highs in recent months following the launch of the P7i, the company's management said earlier this month.  |  XPeng US | XPeng HK

(Image credit: XPeng)

XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) has begun deliveries of the P7i in China, where the sedan was officially launched earlier this month.

XPeng recently began the first deliveries of the P7i, a facelift of its flagship P7 sedan, in seven cities, according to an article posted yesterday by the electric vehicle (EV) maker on its mobile app.

The seven cities are Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Chongqing, where XPeng held the P7i delivery ceremonies, according to the article.

XPeng did not disclose the number of P7i vehicles that were delivered in the first batch.

The P7i is the shortest time between the official launch and delivery of any XPeng model, as the company may be concerned that keeping consumers waiting too long could lead to lost orders.

XPeng officially launched the P7i in China on March 10, offering only four versions with a starting price of RMB 249,900 ($36,390).

The XPeng P7i continues to be built on the regular 400 V platform, rather than the 800 V high-voltage platform used by the G9.

However, the P7i's maximum charging power has been increased from its predecessor's 90 kW to 175 kW, and can be charged from 10 percent to 80 percent in 29 minutes.

The Pro version of the XPeng P7i comes standard with an Nvidia Orin-X Smart Drive chip with 254 TOPS of computing power. The Max version of the model comes standard with two Orin-X chips as well as two LiDARs.

The P7i's predecessor, the P7, was the XPeng's main seller for a long time, selling 59,066 units in 2022, contributing 49 percent of the XPeng's annual sales of 120,757 units, according to data monitored by CnEVPost.

Following the launch of the P7i, XPeng's store traffic and test drives have reached new highs in recent months, He Xiaopeng, the company's chairman and CEO, said during a March 17 analyst call after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings.

The P7i has been well received by customers for its smart features, styling and performance, as well as its other clear advantages against similar products, he said.

Amid the market's prevailing weakness in new order intake, XPeng outperformed the market with a 100 percent increase in new orders in February compared to the previous month, Mr. He said.

With the strong momentum in orders following the official launch of the P7i, XPeng expects total new orders in March to grow significantly month-on-month, he said, adding that this marks the company's initial success following a comprehensive transformation, which has also boosted morale.

($1 = 6.8680 RMB)

XPeng Q4 earnings call: Key points of transcript

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G6 will be swing factor for XPeng, says Deutsche Bank

The upcoming G6 will need to be successful to make to be truly relevant again in the market, said Edison Yu's team.  |  XPeng US | XPeng HK

(XPeng G6 shown in a regulatory filing.)

XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) will officially debut the G6 at next month's Shanghai auto show, and in Deutsche Bank's view, the new SUV's sales performance will be crucial for the electric vehicle maker.

The upcoming G6 will be the swing factor and the model will need to be successful to make XPeng truly relevant in the market again, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team said in a research note sent to investors on Wednesday.

XPeng management said during an earnings call earlier this month that the G6 will be unveiled at the Shanghai auto show and will be officially launched and delivered by the end of the second quarter. The Shanghai auto show will be held from April 18 to April 27.

The model is a new energy SUV with a price range of RMB 200,000 ($29,250) - 300,000 and a monthly sales target of 2-3 times that of the P7, XPeng's management said.

That means at least 5,000 units per month of XPeng G6 sales, based on the trailing 6-month average, Yu's team noted.

XPeng will likely price the G6 similarly to the Model Y, hoping to attract consumers with its sleeker design and updated interior, the team said.

With increased G6 production, XPeng management believes total monthly deliveries could reach 15,000 units at some point in the third quarter, the team noted.

"This seems achievable and we model XPeng reaching this level in Sep," Yu's team wrote.

XPeng management said during a previous earnings call on August 23, 2022, that the company will launch a B-segment car in the first half of 2023 that will compete with the Tesla Model Y.

That model is the G6, and a regulatory filing earlier this month showed that it will come in three versions according to powertrain, including two single-motor versions as well as a dual-motor version. Its battery pack will have both lithium iron phosphate and lithium ternary batteries available.

The XPeng G6 measures 4,753 mm in length, 1,920 mm in width and 1,650 mm in height, with a wheelbase of 2,890 mm. For comparison, the Tesla Model Y measures 4,750 mm in length, 1,921 mm in width and 1,624 mm in height, with a wheelbase of 2,890 mm.

The G6 will have a significantly improved range that will exceed expectations and will have much more interior space than similar offerings from competitors, XPeng chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng said during the earnings call earlier this month.

($1 = RMB 6.8374)

XPeng Q4 earnings call: New order intake up 100% in Feb from Jan

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China NEV insurance registrations for week ending Mar 19: BYD 38,414, Tesla 18,712, NIO 1,775

Insurance registrations for China's NEVs were 113,000 last week, up from 108,000 the week before.

Insurance registrations for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China increased last week compared to the previous week, with a mixed performance from major EV makers.

From March 13 to March 19, insurance registrations for all passenger vehicles in China were 321,000 units, up from 308,000 units the previous week, according to figures shared by several car bloggers on Weibo.

Insurance registrations for NEVs were 113,000 last week, up from 108,000 the week before.

(OTCMKTS: BYDDY) vehicles continued to see the most insurance registrations, with 38,414 last week, up from 37,141 the previous week.

(NASDAQ: TSLA) vehicles saw 18,712 insurance registrations last week, up from 17,032 the week before.

was 1,775 vehicles last week, down from 2,170 the week before.

NIO guided for first-quarter deliveries between 31,000 and 33,000 units earlier this month, meaning March deliveries are expected to be between 10,337 and 12,337 units.

The company's insurance registrations for the first week of March, which included February 27 and February 28, were 3,345 units.

(NASDAQ: LI) vehicles registered 5,438 insurance units last week, up from 4,243 the previous week.

(NYSE: XPEV) had 1,296 vehicles last week, down from 1,635 the week before.

posted 914 units last week, down from 1,043 units the previous week.

China NEV insurance registrations for week ending Mar 12: BYD 37,141, Tesla 17,032, NIO 2,170

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China EV industry sell-off creates opportunity, says Morgan Stanley

leads the pack with superior execution, but risk-reward increasingly favors and after a drastic sell-off this year, Morgan Stanley said.

Shares of major Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers have generally suffered a sell-off so far this year, as the sector's weak sales at the start of the year and recent widespread price wars have raised investor concerns.

However, in Morgan Stanley's view, the sales potential of China's EV companies in the second half of the year is underestimated at a time when costs are sliding.

"We think YTD stock corrections should have discounted competition risks but underrate the cost-driven upside to EV margin/volume in 2H, " Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao's team said in a research note sent to investors on March 19.

As of Monday's close, NIO's (NYSE: NIO) US-traded ADR was down 10 percent this year, XPeng was down 8 percent, and Li Auto was up about 12 percent.

Hsiao's team believes that significant margin pressure from price wars will fuel market concerns about industry profitability and cash flow, especially among new energy vehicle (NEV) heavyweights, namely and China, which can afford to initiate another round of price cuts in the second quarter.

That, combined with weak full-year sales following the stimulus withdrawal, could dampen sales volumes and margins for EV brands in the first half of 2023, the team said.

Still, the production potential of China's NEV industry in the second half of the year and beyond appears to be underestimated as the decline in prices of batteries and key components accelerates following aggressive capacity expansion in 2022, the team noted.

This could translate into potential margin relief for NEV makers and potentially increase NEV penetration in the second half of the year in a cost-effective manner, the team said.

Hsiao's team estimates a 20-25 percent drop in battery costs for major NEV makers, implying a 6-10 percentage point cost savings.

The price drop of lithium carbonate, a key raw material for batteries, has accelerated in recent days and saw its biggest one-day drop so far this year on March 20, according to a CnEVPost report yesterday.

The average price of both industrial-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by RMB 12,500 per ton on March 20, with the latest average price at RMB 272,500 per ton and RMB 312,500 per ton, respectively.

NIO's management said in a call with analysts after the March 1 earnings announcement that they expect lithium carbonate prices to fall back to around RMB 200,000 per ton this year, boosting gross margins back up.

EV makers that can take full advantage of this will not only enjoy margin relief, but also have more flexibility to price their models to further boost NEV penetration in mass markets and lower-tier cities, Hsiao's team wrote in their report.

"That said, the tailwinds from falling input costs may take time to kick in as our checks with major OEMs suggest they are still in discussions with battery suppliers on new terms," the team added.

The team believes that a tougher operating environment will accelerate market reshuffling, with leading EV manufacturers weathering the downturn better than their peers, while the growth of smaller, lagging EV startups could be slowed by a depletion of liquidity in 2023.

Growing investments should also push up cash burn rates. As a result, the ability to optimize working capital and access to market funding will play a more important role in ongoing operations in 2023, the team added.

"Our analysis suggests EV trio (NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto) will still hold fast, backed by healthy balance sheet conditions and better connections to capital markets," Hsiao's team wrote.

The team said they're fully aware of investor worries about EV startups' cash burn that may rapidly deplete their liquidity.

But they believe the EV trio can remain self-funded for the next 18 months, even under the stress-test scenario of a prolonged price war.

"We believe continuous investment would further solidify their technology leadership and enable them to have a better chance of winning out in the next up-cycle," the team wrote.

The team believes that trough valuations mean the market has lowered expectations for EV startups' operational performance and financial resilience in an industry downturn, making any marginal improvement in their sales a meaningful stock catalyst.

Li Auto leads the pack with superior execution, but risk-reward increasingly favors XPeng and NIO after this year's sharp dip, the team said.

Lithium prices see biggest drop this year in China as decline accelerates

The post China EV industry sell-off creates opportunity, says Morgan Stanley appeared first on CnEVPost.

For more articles, please visit CnEVPost.

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