Category: XPeng

XPeng CEO teases MPV model called X9

will open up the MPV market to a younger demographic with the X9, said He Xiaopeng, chairman and CEO of the EV maker.

XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) is starting to warm up for the company's first MPV (multi-purpose vehicle) model, after previously mentioning plans to build such a model.

In addition to the G6, XPeng has recently been building a new MPV, the X9, the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker's chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng said today on Weibo.

"We will open up the MPV market for the younger demographic with this product," Mr. He said.

Mr. He's Weibo didn't mention anything more, but was accompanied by a picture showing the logo of the MPV's name.

XPeng had mentioned last year that the company would launch its first MPV in 2023, and provided more details during its earnings call on May 24.

XPeng will launch a 7-seat all-electric MPV, internally codenamed X9, in the fourth quarter of this year, the company's management said in the call.

Mr. He's Weibo today implies that the model is being finally named X9.

XPeng is defining the 7-seat MPV thinking about how young people associate with MPVs and will go into more detail about the logic of young people buying MPVs at its launch at the end of the year, the company said.

In the second half of the year, gross margin levels will steadily improve with deliveries of the G6, P7i and the MPV, the company said in the Wednesday call.

There are few good MPVs to choose from in the Chinese market before 2022, with the most well-known being the Buick GL8 and the Toyota Alphard. There are even fewer new-energy MPVs.

Dongfeng Motor's EV subsidiary Voyah launched its MPV model Voyah Dreamer in China on May 7, 2022.

's premium brand Denza launched its D9 MPV on May 16, 2022, and launched its Zeekr 009 MPV on November 2.

(NASDAQ: LI) is also expected to roll out its first MPV by the end of the year, though (NYSE: NIO) has stressed several times that it has no plans to build such a model in the near future.

It's worth noting that the MPV market has been a niche segment in China.

Retail sales of passenger cars in China in April were 1,623,568 units, with 779,511 sedans, 748,503 SUVs and 95,554 MPVs, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

This means that MPVs contributed only 5.9 percent of China's passenger car sales in April.

China Apr auto sales breakdown: Sedan 779,511, SUV 748,503, MPV 95,554

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XPeng Q1 earnings call: Key takeaways

aims to reach 15,000 monthly deliveries in the third quarter and 20,000 monthly deliveries in the fourth quarter, its management said.  |  XPeng US | XPeng HK

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) reported first-quarter earnings on May 24 and held a conference call with analysts afterward.

Below are the key points compiled by CnEVPost based on the call.

XPeng management presentation

Over the past four months, XPeng orders have grown in each month compared to the previous month, despite macroeconomic challenges and fiercer industry competition.

The high-end version of the P7i, the ternary lithium battery version, has exceeded expectations to the extent that the originally prepared capacity could not meet consumer demand.

Compared to previous versions, the P7i has a more streamlined SKU and a tighter rhythm of launch.

Starting in June, XPeng will work with its supplier partners to increase the capacity of P7i components and accelerate its delivery.

XPeng's first new model based on SEPA 2.0 architecture, the G6, is equipped with the industry's most advanced 800-volt high-voltage system and 3C fast-charging battery with a range of up to 755 km.

The G6 will be delivered with industry-leading XNGP technology, and media test drives of the model began last week, with feedback that the model is significantly different from other electric vehicles on the market in terms of smart driving and energy consumption with 800-volt high-voltage fast charging.

The G6 will be officially launched in June, with volume deliveries starting in July, and production capacity will climb rapidly.

The G6 will be a hot seller in the Chinese new energy SUV market in the price range of RMB 200,000 ($28,325) to 300,000.

Deliveries of the G6 will enable XPeng's total deliveries to grow well above the industry's pace in the third quarter, and the company will see the first sales inflection point following its strategic and organizational realignment.

XPeng will launch a 7-seat all-electric MPV, internally codenamed X9, in the fourth quarter of this year.

XPeng will introduce more clearly defined and better equipped versions of its existing models this year, allowing sales to rise another notch.

XPeng is confident that 2023 will be the inflection point for its smart technology, with the majority of potential customers recognizing its value in 2024 to 2025.

At the end of March, XPeng pushed out City NGP and XNGP features to Max versions of several models in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shanghai.

Customer feedback on these assisted driving features has been positive, with mileage penetration exceeding 60 percent in the first month of rollout.

Following XPeng's test drives of XNGP in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shanghai, orders for the Max versions of the P7i and G9 in those cities increased significantly in April, by more than 50 percent.

The company plans to officially launch Highway NGP 2.0 in June, and XPeng has rewritten the system based on the XNGP framework with five times more code than the original.

XPeng expects to make Highway NGP 2.0 a near-L4 autonomous driving experience, with virtually zero takeover.

This year, XPeng expects to achieve less than 1 takeover per 1,000 km in highway scenarios.

By the end of the third quarter of this year, XPeng will roll out XNGP without relying on high precision maps in cities in China that do not have high precision maps.

In terms of the difficulty of mass production, XNGP without relying on high precision maps is nearly 100 times more than highway NGP with high precision maps, which is an important watershed to test the team's technical and data capabilities.

The actual user experience will be greatly improved after this feature is implemented. Currently XNGP has reached the driving level of novice drivers.

XPeng hopes to release an OTA update every quarter thereafter to improve the XNGP experience.

As the XNGP continues to break through in experience and cost, XPeng's Max version vehicles with XNGP are expected to see a big increase in sales in the fourth quarter of this year.

XPeng has recently brought in several new designers and will also bring in outside teams to compete creatively with in-house in the design process of new models.

These adjustments will bring XPeng's future new models and facelifts to the top of the industry in terms of interior and exterior styling.

Since the first quarter, XPeng's marketing and service system has changed significantly thanks to the efforts of new president Wang Fengying and the team. The user experience throughout the sales and service process has improved, speeding up the response time to user needs.

One of the core indicators XPeng focuses on, NPS, has been steadily improving every month from the beginning of this year to April, and has returned to the top level in the industry in April.

In the coming quarters, XPeng's primary goal will be to rapidly expand sales to capture a larger share of the electric vehicle market.

XPeng has completed the flattening of the channel management and will optimize the current sales network to improve the overall capacity of the channel.

While improving the efficiency of the sales network in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities, XPeng will also bring in more dealer partners in Tier 3 and Tier 4 cities to support its product layout and sales targets in the RMB 150,000 to 350,000 price range in the coming years.

Technological changes and fierce competition will reshape the landscape of China's auto industry in the next three years. In addition to excellent product definition and technological innovation, extreme cost reduction and high efficiency will be the key to win.

XPeng's SEPA 2.0 architecture is highly competitive in R&D efficiency innovation, and the mass production of G6 marks that the architecture and XPeng's intense technology development over the past five years have allowed it to build up its technology platform capability.

This will keep XPeng at the forefront of technology for the next three years, while the company is launching more new models based on the SEPA 2.0 architecture that are more cost competitive and have a consistent usage and operating experience.

XPeng is working on several new models that will cover the RMB 150,000 to 350,000 price range, sharing power, electronics, smart cabin and smart driving platforms.

XPeng expects to further reduce the development cycle of new models by 20 percent, and expects to achieve a component sharing rate of up to 80 percent for the architecture part, thus allowing the development cost and BOM cost of future models to be significantly reduced.

XPeng is working on a clear and feasible technical solution to reduce the cost of the Max version by 25 percent by the end of next year.

Competition currently revolves around volume, but after 2025, the focus will be on a combination of innovation at scale, design cost, efficiency, quality, and globalization.

XPeng had over RMB 34 billion in cash at the end of the first quarter, and will allow R&D investment to focus on customer-approved areas in the future.

XPeng will optimize the organization and process management to further improve the efficiency of company-wide operations.

Starting in July, the delivery of G6 and other new products will allow XPeng sales to grow rapidly, and monthly deliveries in the third quarter are expected to be substantially higher than in the second quarter.

XPeng's target for monthly deliveries in the fourth quarter is above 20,000 units, at which time operating cash flow is expected to turn positive.

XPeng expects total deliveries in the second quarter to be about 21,000 to 22,000 units, up 15 percent to 21 percent from the first quarter, and revenue is expected to be RMB 4.5 to 4.7 billion.

Below are the key points of the Q&A session.

Q1: What pricing strategy will XPeng use for the G6 and future models?

A: Currently, XPeng's overall strategy is a balanced pricing approach with scale first.

Pricing for the XPeng G6 and subsequent models will take into account the cost fluctuations of raw materials, including lithium carbonate, and will allow for relatively manageable costs. Ultimately, we expect to achieve competitive pricing and maintain it over time, while prioritizing scale.

Q2: Has the supply chain bottleneck of P7i been solved and how long will the capacity creep time of G6 be?

A: The G6 has been set aside for about two months from SOP to delivery. The model will be released in June and deliveries will start in July. With a two-month cushion, monthly deliveries of the G6 are expected to climb much faster than the G9 and P7i in the third quarter.

Compared to the P7i, the G6 has a well-prepared supply chain and we expect the model to achieve a rapid sales creep.

For the problem of low yield rate of integrated die casting, we have been experimenting for more than a year and it is progressing smoothly and the yield rate is as expected, which will not be a problem for G6.

Q3: What impact do you think the drop in battery raw material prices will have on battery costs, and on gross profit in the second quarter?

A: In the first quarter, XPeng's battery cost decreased by 5 percent compared with the fourth quarter of last year, benefiting from the decrease in the price of battery raw materials, and the battery cost in the second quarter is expected to decrease by 10 to 12 percent compared with the fourth quarter of last year.

Battery costs account for about 40 percent of total costs, so a 7 percent drop in battery costs in the second quarter would mean about a 3-4 percent improvement in gross margin.

This is just a judgment from the raw material perspective, the revenue side also has a very important impact on the gross margin.

Q4: Will you adjust your full-year delivery forecast?

A: G6 will start volume delivery in July, XPeng delivery growth in the third and fourth quarters will be expected to be higher than the market growth rate.

XPeng is expected to reach the target of 15,000 monthly deliveries in the third quarter and 20,000 monthly deliveries in the fourth quarter.

Q5: What is the order and capacity situation of P7i? How do you anticipate the demand for new models?

A: The supply chain bottleneck of P7i is mainly the lack of preparation of battery and battery-related parts. The production capacity of the ternary lithium battery will be improved in May and June, which will be able to meet the delivery demand of P7i ternary lithium battery version.

Regarding the estimation of industry demand and new model demand, the industry is not very stable recently, XPeng's estimation of demand will remain robust and work with suppliers based on this.

Q6: What is the positioning of your MPV model? Does it differ more from the more youthful image of previous products, and how do you make the model relate to XPeng's youthful and technological positioning?

A: XPeng's current main user group is between 25 and 35 years old, and the unemployment rate of young people has no significant impact on sales.

XPeng is thinking about how young people can be associated with MPV when defining 7-seater MPV, and will introduce the logic of young people buying MPV in detail at the end of the year launch.

Q7: What are your expectations for gross margin in 2023?

A: XPeng still has some sales volume pressure in the second quarter, but continued cost reduction will have a positive impact.

In the second half of the year, gross margin levels will improve steadily throughout the year with the delivery of the G6, P7i and MPV.

Significant improvement in XPeng gross margin will come after cost reduction measures start to be implemented and sales volumes improve, which will be reflected in 2024.

Q8: What are your expectations for lithium prices? What is the proportion of lithium iron phosphate and lithium ternary batteries used in the vehicle models? How does this affect costs?

The current short-term lithium price rebound is temporary, and prices will go down in the second half of the year and are expected to fall to within RMB 200,000.

Today XPeng and its peers are pricing batteries flexibly based on market prices.

XPeng's most important innovation goal is to achieve the longest range with the fewest batteries, so the use of lithium iron phosphate or lithium iron phosphate-like batteries will increase significantly in proportion.

This will bring down the cost of the vehicle, safety will be improved, and the range will satisfy the customer.

Q9: What is the contribution of XNGP to orders after its launch?

XPeng launched XNGP in Shenzhen, Shanghai and Guangzhou in March, and customers in these three cities can experience the XNGP features. In April, there was a 50 percent increase in sales of P7i and G9 in these three cities.

XPeng believes that as more cities see XNGP available in the second half of the year, and as the XNGP user experience continues to be optimized, it will help further improve orders.

XNGP will be free of its reliance on high-precision maps by the end of the third quarter when the launch of the feature will not require approval, and it will cover more cities this year and next.

Q10: How does XPeng compare to its peers in terms of assisted driving? Will the short-term decline in sales affect data collection to the extent that it will limit the progress of assisted driving development?

Currently, no other company has reached XPeng's level in cities without high-precision maps, and the company is 12 months ahead of its peers in terms of volume production for autonomous driving.

Current volumes are sufficient for the generalization of vision or language models. It needs to be seen in the future whether more vehicles on the road can improve the accuracy and reliability of assisted driving.

Q11: What are XPeng's breakdown sales targets for different models for the second half of the year?

XPeng wants the G6 to reach more than twice the sales of the P7i, and wants G9 sales to increase from current levels, but cannot provide a breakdown at this time.

Q12: What is XPeng's product plan for 2023-2025? Will a lower-priced model be launched?

XPeng will launch about 10 models on the same platform while controlling costs.

The company's main price range will remain RMB 200,000 to 300,000, while it will also offer products in the sub-RMB 200,000 and over RMB 300,000 price ranges, but not as a primary target.

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XPeng Q1 earnings miss expectations, gross margin falls to 1.7%

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XPeng Q1 earnings: Deutsche Bank’s first look

" delivered even softer 1Q23 results than we previewed, accompanied by a muted 2Q outlook," Edison Yu's team said.

XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter earnings today, and as usual, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their first look.

Here is the research note the team sent to investors today.

1Q23 Earnings First Look

XPeng delivered even softer 1Q23 results than we previewed, accompanied by a muted 2Q outlook.

Volume for 1Q was already reported at 18,230 units, leading to revenue of 4.03bn RMB, essentially in line with our 4.04bn estimate; vehicle pricing was slightly lower, offset by "Services and other."

Total gross margin declined 700bps QoQ to just 1.7%, missing our 5.0% estimate (consensus 6.1%), driven by lower vehicle margin (-2.5% vs. our 0.4% due to aggressive price cuts/promotions).

Opex of 2,654m came in below our model as higher R&D was offset by lower SG&A.

All together, EPS of (2.57) came in about in line with our (2.52) forecast.

Management provided a muted 2Q23 outlook, calling for 21,000-22,000 deliveries, vs. our 24,000 forecast, translating into 4.5-4.7bn RMB in revenue (vs. our 5.6bn).

This implies May/June seeing little to no MoM improvement as April garnered 7,079 units and pricing/mix facing further pressure (G9 demand still struggling and P7i constrained by component supply).

On the earnings call, we will look for further commentary on the exact timing of G6 deliveries (SOP seemingly has already begun), pricing, and volume expectations.

XPeng Q1 earnings miss expectations, gross margin falls to 1.7%

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XPeng Q1 earnings miss expectations, gross margin falls to 1.7%

reported a negative 2.5 percent vehicle margin for the first quarter, a decline attributed to increased sales promotions and the expiration of the NEV subsidy.

XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) today reported weaker-than-expected first quarter results, with gross margins falling sharply to low single digits due to sales promotions.

The company reported first-quarter revenue of RMB 4.03 billion ($590 million), down 45.9 percent year-on-year and down 21.5 percent from the fourth quarter, according to its unaudited earnings report released today.

This was below Wall Street analysts' estimates of RMB 4.22 billion and lies near the lower end of the guidance range it previously provided of RMB 4 billion to RMB 4.2 billion.

XPeng reported first-quarter vehicle sales revenue of RMB 3.51 billion, down 49.8 percent year-on-year and down 24.6 percent from the fourth quarter of 2022.

The decreases were mainly due to lower vehicle deliveries and the discontinuation of new energy vehicle (NEV) subsidies in China, XPeng said.

Previously published figures have shown that XPeng delivered 18,230 vehicles in the first quarter, slightly above the lower end of the guidance range of 18,000 to 19,000 vehicles.

XPeng's gross margin was 1.7 percent in the first quarter, compared with 12.2 percent and 8.7 percent in the same period last year and the fourth quarter of 2022, respectively.

It reported a negative 2.5 percent vehicle margin in the first quarter compared to 10.4 percent in the same period in 2022 and 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022.

That decline was due to increased sales promotions and the expiration of the NEV subsidy, XPeng said.

XPeng's R&D expenses in the first quarter were RMB 1.30 billion, up 6.1 percent year-on-year and up 5.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2022.

These increases were mainly due to higher expenses related to the development of new models to support future growth.

It reported selling, general and administrative expenses of RMB 1.39 billion in the first quarter, a decrease of 15.5 percent year-on-year and a decrease of 21.0 percent from the fourth quarter of 2022.

This was mainly due to lower commissions to franchisees and lower marketing and advertising expenses, XPeng said.

XPeng reported a net loss of RMB 2.34 billion in the first quarter, compared with RMB 1.70 billion in the same period last year and RMB 2.36 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Non-GAAP net loss, excluding stock-based compensation expense, was RMB 2.21 billion in the first quarter compared to RMB 1.53 billion in the same period in 2022 and RMB 2.21 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022.

XPeng reported both basic and diluted net loss per ADS of RMB 2.71 in the first quarter, compared to RMB 2.00 in the same period last year and RMB 2.74 in the fourth quarter of 2022.

It reported a non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ADS of RMB 2.57 for the first quarter, compared to RMB 1.80 for the same period last year and RMB 2.57 for the fourth quarter of 2022.

As of March 31, XPeng had cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments and time deposits of RMB 34.12 billion.

This compares to RMB 41.71 billion as of March 31, 2022 and RMB 38.25 billion as of December 31, 2022.

XPeng expects second-quarter vehicle deliveries to be in the range of 21,000 to 22,000 units, a decrease of about 36.1 percent to 39.0 percent year-on-year.

It expects total revenue for the second quarter to be between RMB 4.5 billion and RMB 4.7 billion, a decrease of about 36.8 percent to 39.5 percent year-on-year.

Considering XPeng delivered 7,079 vehicles in April, the guidance implies that the company expects it will deliver a total of 13,921 to 14,921 vehicles in May and June.

XPeng's deliveries have continued to be weak since the second half of last year, with the G9 launch failing to generate consumer enthusiasm.

The company's sales now appear to be dampened again by the G6 as potential consumers wait for the model, whose launch and delivery is expected by the end of June.

XPeng sees 1st G6 production vehicle off line

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China NEV insurance registrations for week ending May 21: Li Auto 7,100, XPeng 1,500, NIO 1,400

This article is being updated, please refresh later for more content.

vehicles registered 10,200 insurance units in China last week, bringing the number to 26,118 for the first three weeks of May.

founder, chairman and CEO Li Xiang said last week that they had been complained about by some of their peers and therefore could not continue to share the weekly insurance registration numbers.

Interestingly, however, the company resumed sharing those numbers today to continue to show that it leads the pack among Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) startups.

For the week of May 15 to May 21, Li Auto sold 7,100 units, far outpacing other new car brands and reigning as the weekly sales leader for new automaking brands in the Chinese market, the company said today on Weibo.

Li Auto did not explain on what basis the sales were counted, but apparently, they were insurance registrations.

Li Auto surpassed all other traditional luxury brands except Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi to remain in the top five luxury brands in the Chinese market in terms of sales, the highest-ranked Chinese brand on the list, it said.

In the first two weeks of May, Li Auto vehicles had 4,543 and 6,670 insurance registrations, respectively. This means that from May 1 to May 21, Li Auto sold about 18,313 vehicles.

The tables Li Auto shared today show that vehicles had 1,400 insurance registrations last week. This means that NIO had 3,700 insurance registrations for the first three weeks of May.

NIO deliveries continue to be curbed by the upcoming launch of the new ES6, with insurance registration figures of 1,100 and 1,200 in the first and second weeks of May, respectively.

NIO will officially launch the new ES6 on May 24, and its deliveries will start on May 25.

The company is getting the ES6 to market with unprecedented delivery efficiency, and as of May 20, the new ES6 show cars were available at nearly 300 NIO stores in 92 cities.

registered 1,500 insurance units last week, the same as the previous week. In the first three weeks of May, XPeng vehicles had 3,870 insurance registrations.

XPeng deliveries were also dampened by the new model G6, which is expected to officially launch and begin deliveries at the end of next month.

Insurance registrations for Tesla vehicles in China were 10,200 last week, bringing the figure to 26,118 for the first three weeks of May. The number was 5,928 and 9,990 in the first two weeks of May.

Data table: China NEV weekly insurance registrations

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XPeng sees 1st G6 production vehicle off line

management previously said that the G6 will be officially launched and delivered by the end of the second quarter, with a price range of RMB 200,000 - 300,000.  |  XPeng US | XPeng HK

XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) has seen the first production vehicle of the G6 roll off the assembly line, as the new SUV gets closer to its official launch.

The development was revealed in a leaked image on Chinese social media of XPeng production line employees celebrating the moment, and XPeng has not released any official content about it.

On March 17, XPeng management said during the company's fourth-quarter earnings call that the G6 will be officially launched and delivered by the end of the second quarter, with a price range of 200,000 yuan ($28,450) to 300,000 yuan.

XPeng's monthly sales target for the G6 is two to three times that of the P7, the company's chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng said in the call.

XPeng gave several previews of the model in early April and unveiled the SUV's exterior ahead of its official debut.

On April 16, the electric vehicle (EV) maker unveiled a new architecture, called SEPA (Smart Electric Platform Architecture) 2.0, at a technology conference in Shanghai, saying the G6 would be the first model built on it.

XPeng officially unveiled the G6 on the first day of the Shanghai auto show on April 18, saying that the G6 is the ultimate form of car before full autonomous driving is achieved.

The model is based on the 800 V high-voltage platform and can get a 300-kilometer range in as little as 10 minutes on a charge, XPeng said at the time. The company's other 800 V-based model is the flagship G9 SUV.

XPeng did not release specific specs or pricing information for the G6, which they expect to know at a future official launch event.

The company appears to be ramping up production preparations for the G6 so that it can deliver it quickly after its official launch, as its local counterparts have proven that strategy to be effective in China's competitive EV market.

XPeng sees the Model Y as the G6's main competitor. The vehicle is positioned as an all-electric midsize SUV with a length, width and height of 4,753 mm, 1,920 mm and 1,650 mm, respectively, and a wheelbase of 2,890 mm, a regulatory filing in March showed.

For comparison, the Tesla Model Y has a length, width and height of 4,750 mm, 1,921 mm, 1,624 mm and a wheelbase of 2,890 mm.

G6 will need to be successful for XPeng to be truly relevant again in the marketplace, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team said in a research note sent to investors on May 17.

XPeng will report its unaudited first-quarter financial results on Wednesday, May 24, before the US markets open, when its earnings call is expected to provide more information on the model.

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XPeng Q1 earnings preview: Counting down to G6

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XPeng Q1 earnings preview: Counting down to G6

XPeng's financial performance in the first quarter and its outlook for the second quarter will be weak, though the company may see a turnaround after the launch of G6, according to Edison Yu's team.

XPeng Q1 earnings preview: Counting down to G6-CnEVPost

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XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) will report its unaudited financial results for the first quarter on May 24 before the US markets open. As usual, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their preview.

XPeng's performance will be weak in the first quarter and the outlook for the second quarter is likely to be subdued, but a turnaround in the second half of this year may be in the cards after the launch of the new SUV G6, according to a research note sent to investors today.

First quarter earnings

Previously released data showed that XPeng delivered 18,230 vehicles in the first quarter, slightly above the lower end of the guidance range of 18,000 to 19,000 vehicles.

The company's previous revenue guidance for the first quarter was RMB 4 billion to RMB 4.2 billion, a decrease of about 43.7 percent to 46.3 percent year on year.

XPeng sales have been weak since the second half of last year, with deliveries of just 5,218 units in January. It rebounded to 7,079 units in April, essentially flat from March.

Yu's team expects XPeng to report revenue of RMB 4.04 billion and adjusted earnings per share of RMB -2.52 for the first quarter.

The team expects XPeng's gross margin to be 5.0 percent and vehicle margin to be 0.4 percent in the first quarter, or down 530 basis points sequentially, as price cuts and promotions hurt margins.

This compares to the current consensus analyst estimates of RMB 4.24 billion, 6.1 percent and RMB -2.09, respectively, in a Bloomberg survey.

Subdued second quarter

Yu's team believes that XPeng deliveries are likely to be subdued in the second quarter as the G9 has struggled to gain order flow and supply constraints have hampered P7i deliveries.

G9 sales have been below 1,000 units for the past three months, and a summer price cut is likely, the team said.

XPeng management has said that orders for the P7i have increased unexpectedly and will increase more meaningfully in June and beyond. As a result, Yu's team expects XPeng to guide for low-mid 20,000 range second-quarter deliveries.

Deliveries of the upcoming G6 will begin in late June and the model will not make a significant contribution in the second quarter, according to the team.

G6 is the swing factor

In the company's fourth-quarter earnings call on March 17, XPeng management said the G6 will be officially launched and delivered by the end of the second quarter, with a price range of RMB 200,000 ($28,590) to RMB 300,000.

XPeng's monthly sales target for the G6 is 2-3 times that of the P7, He Xiaopeng, the company's chairman and CEO, said during the call.

XPeng unveiled a new architecture called SEPA (Smart Electric Platform Architecture) 2.0 at a technology conference in Shanghai on April 16, saying the G6 will be the first model built on the architecture.

The architecture will shorten the development cycle of future models by 20 percent and optimize development efficiency significantly. Interchangeability and interoperability of common and modular components between new models will reach 80 percent, enabling XPeng to meet diverse customer needs at an optimized cost, it said at the time.

Yu's team believes that the G6 will need to be successful for XPeng to be truly relevant again in the marketplace.

On a relative basis, XPeng management sees the G6 selling 2-3 times as many units as the P7, which means at least more than 5,000 units per month, according to Yu's team.

"Our view is XPeng will price G6 below Model Y in hopes of attracting consumers with its sleeker design and newer interior," the team wrote.

With the increased production of the G6, XPeng management believes total monthly deliveries could reach 15,000 units at some point in the third quarter.

"This seems achievable and we model XPeng reaching this level in Sep with potentially some help from a midcycle P5 face-lift ('P5i')," the team said.

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XPeng G6 debuts at Shanghai auto show

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China NEV insurance registrations for week ending May 14: BYD 46,892, Tesla 9,990, NIO 1,200

NIO's sales appear to continue to be dampened by the upcoming new ES6, as potential consumers may be waiting for this more cost-effective SUV.

The main channels that previously shared weekly auto insurance registrations in China stopped sharing these numbers, but multiple reliable sources that we track on a daily basis shared last week's numbers.

For the week of May 8 to May 14, insurance registrations for all passenger vehicles in China were 365,000, up 43.5 percent year-on-year, but down 11.8 percent from the previous week.

Insurance registrations for conventional internal combustion engine vehicles were 245,000 last week, up 29.8 percent year-on-year but down 20.3 percent from the previous week.

New energy vehicles (NEVs) were 120,000 units last week, up 82.7 percent year-on-year and 12.8 percent from the previous week.

In terms of NEV insurance registrations, BYD (OTCMKTS: BYDDY) continues to hold the distant lead with 46,892 units last week, up from 45,789 units the week before.
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During the week of May 1 to May 7, the first three days were the Labor Day holiday in China, although May 6 was a Saturday but a weekday. The holiday ran from April 29 to May 3.

(NASDAQ: TSLA) registered 9,990 insurance units in China last week, up from 5,928 the week before.

NIO (NYSE: NIO) had 1,200 insurance registrations last week, up from 1,100 the week before. These numbers are not precise to the single digit, as the sources tracked by CnEVPost did not share more detailed figures.

NIO's sales appear to be continuing to be dampened by the upcoming new ES6, as potential consumers may be waiting for the more cost-effective SUV.

The company announced yesterday that the new ES6 will be officially launched on May 24, with test drives available on the same day and deliveries to begin on May 25.

This will be its fastest model from launch to delivery, perhaps because of the lessons learned from the long waiting period for models including the ET5 that led to the loss of potential orders.

The continued product switchover led to months of sluggish NIO deliveries, which fell further to 6,658 vehicles in April. The company will report first-quarter earnings on June 9, when it is expected to provide guidance on second-quarter deliveries.

(NASDAQ: LI) continued its strong trend with 6,670 insurance registrations last week, up from 4,543 the previous week.

Li Auto is currently untroubled by product switches and its three models are competitive compared to their class, allowing it to maintain strong sales.

To show off that it is leading the pack of new car makers, Li Auto has shared weekly insurance registration figures for the past two months, but stopped sharing them this month.

On May 15, Li Auto founder, chairman and CEO Li Xiang said on Weibo that their sharing of weekly data was complained about by some of their peers, so they were unable to continue sharing them.

Li Auto guided for second-quarter deliveries between 76,000 and 81,000 vehicles when it reported first-quarter earnings on May 10. Considering it delivered a record 25,681 vehicles in April, that guidance means it expects to deliver a total of 50,319 to 55,319 vehicles in May and June.

XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) had 1,500 insurance registrations last week, up from 870 the week before.

XPeng, similar to NIO, is facing a product switch, with potential consumers perhaps watching the upcoming launch of the new SUV G6.

It previously said the G6 would be officially launched and delivered by the end of the second quarter, with a price range of RMB 200,000 ($28,660) - RMB 300,000.

XPeng's monthly sales target for the G6 is two to three times that of the P7, its chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng said during a March 17 analyst call after the company announced its fourth-quarter earnings.

XPeng delivered 7,079 vehicles in April, down 21.36 percent from 9,002 a year ago but up 1.1 percent from 7,002 in March.

It will report first-quarter earnings on May 24, when it is expected to provide guidance on second-quarter deliveries.

($1=RMB 6.9787)

Data table: China NEV weekly insurance registrations

The post China NEV insurance registrations for week ending May 14: BYD 46,892, Tesla 9,990, NIO 1,200 appeared first on CnEVPost.

For more articles, please visit CnEVPost.

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