This article is copublished with Ambrook Research as part of a series that looks at ways the 2023 Farm Bill can help address the climate crisis.
Category: eV
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Li Auto Q1 earnings: Deutsche Bank’s first look
The true test will be how sustainable this run-rate is in the second half of this year, Edison Yu's team said. | Li Auto US | Li Auto HK
Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) today reported first-quarter earnings that beat expectations, and Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their first look in a research note sent to investors.
Without further ado, here's what the team's research note had to say.
Li Auto delivered mostly strong 1Q results along with a solid volume outlook. Deliveries were already reported for 1Q at 52,584 units, leading to revenue of 18.7bn RMB, beating our 17.7bn forecast due to higher ASPs.
Impressively, while volume was toward the low-end of guidance, sales were above the high-end despite mix headwinds.
Total gross margin of 20.4% was slightly below our 20.7% estimate on softer vehicle margin of 19.8% (-20bps QoQ; vs. our 20.5%), suggesting that launch costs were heavier and/or BOM of new models may be greater than anticipated as pricing didn't flow through.
Opex of 3.5bn was below our expectation, mainly due to lower R&D, leading to higher-than-expected net profit; adjusted EPS was 1.35, easily ahead of DBe/consensus, helped by higher interest/ investment and other income (>30c benefit).
Free cash flow came in just below 7bn, materially better than anticipated, mainly due to working capital performance on payables.
Management provided solid 2Q guidance calling for 76,000-81,000 in deliveries, ahead of our 75,000 forecast, implying a small step-up from April's 25,681 units.
The company already expressed confidence in reaching 25,000-30,000 deliveries this month once the cheaper L7 and L8 "Air" trims garner a full month of availability.
The true test will be how sustainable this run-rate is in the 2H. We have seen the L9/L8 drop off somewhat in monthly volume already.
Revenue is expected to be 24.22-25.86bn RMB in 2Q, above DBe/consensus estimates and implying slightly better ASP/mix than our model.
Li Auto sees Q1 revenue beat expectations, net income up 252% from Q4
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NEV demand in China expected to pick up in Q2, analysts say
Demand for NEVs is expected to pick up in the second quarter as lithium carbonate prices stabilize, according to analysts at CITIC Securities.
Chinese consumers' wait-and-see sentiment when it comes to buying new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to ease significantly in the second quarter, which will facilitate a recovery in demand for the sector, local analysts said.
In the first quarter, China's overall NEV sales growth slowed as demand was overdrawn before subsidies for NEV purchases were withdrawn late last year, coupled with strong consumer wait-and-see sentiment, said CITIC Securities analyst Yuan Jiancong's team in a research note today.
For consumers, the sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices and price cuts by automakers have fueled their wait-and-see, according to the team.
In the second quarter, demand for NEVs is expected to pick up as lithium carbonate prices stabilize, the team said.
China's state subsidy for NEV purchases expired at the end of last year. To take advantage of the subsidy, some consumers who had planned to buy vehicles in 2023 may have advanced their purchase plans, leading to weak NEV sales in the first quarter.
Retail NEV sales in China were about 1.32 million units in the first quarter, up 23.72 percent year-on-year, but down 26.62 percent from the fourth quarter, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
In addition to the withdrawal of subsidies, the price of lithium carbonate, a key raw material for batteries, has continued to fall since the end of last year, with some electric vehicle companies beginning to cut prices and subsequently seeing a price war across the auto industry.
As of April 21, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate had not seen a single-day gain this year, falling 65 percent from the beginning of the year.
After that, the price of lithium carbonate has largely stabilized, and as of today, battery grade lithium carbonate has risen for the eighth day in a row.
($1 = RMB 6.9266)
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Tesla Produces 5000 Model Y In One Week In Texas & Launches Lithium Refining Site
Tesla is on a roll this week. To keep up with its almost constantly growing sales, Tesla has been ramping up Model Y production at sites around the world. It has also just broken ground on a lithium refinery project. The big news on both fronts this week comes from The Lone Star State. (Unfortunately, […]
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