Category: Nio

China NEV insurance registrations for week ending Jun 4: Tesla 14,500, Li Auto 6,600, NIO 1,700

launched the new ES6 on May 24, though the model is likely still in the process of climbing capacity and not contributing much to sales.

(NASDAQ: LI) kept sales strong last week, while its two local peers, NIO (NYSE: NIO) and (NYSE: XPEV), remained weak.

With 6,600 units sold in the week of May 29 to June 4, Li Auto continues to lead the pack among China's new car-making brands, the company said today on Weibo.

That's far more than other new car brands and more than the second and third places combined, Li Auto said.

Li Auto has delivered more than 20,000 units for three consecutive months, and this month the company will aim to reach its 30,000-unit monthly sales target, it added.

Li Auto didn't explain what the weekly sales are based on, but apparently, they are insurance registrations. The company had suspended sharing those numbers in May, but has now resumed sharing them.

All of Li Auto's models currently on sale are extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), essentially plug-in hybrids that are targeting a broader market, including the five-seat Li L7 and the six-seat Li L9 and Li L8.

NIO and XPeng, on the other hand, offer only purely electric models and face a growing but much smaller market space.

NIO sold 1,700 units last week, according to figures shared by Li Auto. This is slightly higher than the previous week's 1,600 units.

Last week included the last three days of May and the first four days of June. The insurance data represents the number of vehicles registered in China.

NIO launched the new ES6 on May 24, although the model is likely still in the process of climbing capacity and thus still not contributing much to sales.

The electric vehicle (EV) maker delivered 6,155 vehicles in May, down 7.55 percent from April and down 12.37 percent year-on-year, according to data released on June 1.

NIO will finish climbing capacity for the new ES6 in June to deliver vehicles as early as possible, Jim Wei, the company's senior vice president of user operations, said in announcing May delivery figures on the NIO App on June 1.

In a research note sent to investors yesterday, Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao's team said that NIO's overall new order intake hit a year-to-date high thanks to the launch of the new ES6.

(NASDAQ: TSLA) sold 14,500 units last week, up from 12,800 the week before, according to figures shared by Li Auto.

Tesla sold 77,695 China-made vehicles in May, including those exported, data released yesterday by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed.

This was up 2.44 percent from 75,842 vehicles in April and up 141.55 percent from 32,165 vehicles in the same month last year.

XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) sold 2,100 units last week, unchanged from the previous week.

The company delivered 7,506 vehicles in May, down 25.87 percent year-on-year, but up 6.03 percent from April.

XPeng will begin pre-sales of the G6, the new SUV designed to compete with Tesla's Model Y, on June 9.

sold 2,100 units last week, up from 1,900 units the week before.

The company delivered 8,678 vehicles in May, up 100.42 percent from 4,330 in the same month last year and up 7.12 percent from 8,101 in April.

This is the fourth consecutive increase in monthly deliveries for Zeekr, which will begin deliveries of its third model, the Zeekr X, later this month.

Leapmotor sales were 3,400 units last week, down from 3,600 the week before. was 2,900 units last week, up from 2,100 the week before.

https://cnevdata.com/2023/06/06/china-nev-weekly-insurance-registrations-0606/

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NIO’s new order intake hits year-to-date high with launch of new ES6, Morgan Stanley says

Confirmed orders for the ES6 accounted for 35-40 percent of new orders in May, meaning inflows since the model's launch in the last week of May have been quite meaningful, Morgan Stanley said.  |  US | NIO HK | NIO SG

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

The new ES6 is critical for NIO (NYSE: NIO) to turn around its weak sales performance. So what has the model contributed to NIO since its launch? A new research note from Morgan Stanley provides a good reference.

NIO's overall new order intake hit a year-to-date high, boosted by the launch of the new ES6, analyst Tim Hsiao's team said in a research note sent to investors on June 5.

The team said they have been tracking some feedback from startups' major sales channels in major Chinese cities since early last year to better understand the latest market dynamics.

The team shared their key findings in their research note while noting the limitations of their sampling methodology.

Confirmed orders for the ES6 accounted for 35-40 percent of new orders in May, implying quite a meaningful inflow since the model hit the market in the last week of May, the team said.

As background, NIO officially launched the new ES6 on May 24 and delivered it to its first owners the same night, the fastest from launch to delivery in the company's history.

Including the battery, the new ES6 has a starting price of RMB 368,000 ($51,680), making it NIO's least expensive SUV.

NIO saw overall traffic at its flagship stores in Tier 1 cities increase 30-40 percent month-on-month in May and continued that momentum in early June after the company brought the new ES6 to market, Hsiao's team said, citing their latest checks.

"Overall store traffic at the stores we track is back to the level seen this February but still 20% below last September's level, when the company rolled out ET5," the team said.

NIO stores' retail conversion rate -- the ratio of orders to traffic -- remained largely steady at 5 percent in May, the team said, adding that consumers need more time to get a closer and deeper look at the new model and they expect conversion rates to climb gradually with broader test drives.

Hsiao's team believes the starting price for the new ES6 looks a bit conservative, but their checks last week at major NIO flagship stores in Tier 1 cities suggest that order momentum has been picking up.

"Certain stores we talked to further suggest that NIO's orders as a whole exceeded 9k units in May. Within this, ES6 basically dominated order inflow after taking confirmed orders from last week of May," the team said.

On a full-month basis, the new ES6 accounted for more than 35 percent of total orders, which suggests a quite meaningful turnaround at the end of the month, the team said.

Orders for NIO look a bit overly concentrated at the moment, Hsiao's team said, adding that some salespeople they interviewed suspended order intake for the ES8 and EC6 during the model changeover.

NIO's sedan models, such as the ET7, saw orders drop by about 20 percent in May from a year earlier, according to the team.

"ET5 and the all-new ES6 contribute about 80% of new orders, implying likely greater volatility if other high-margin models fail to catch up," the team said.

Notably, NIO is still in the process of getting the new ES6 capacity to climb, and the model contributed very little to deliveries last month.

The EV maker delivered 6,155 vehicles in May, down 7.55 percent from April and down 12.37 percent year-on-year, according to data released June 1.

The deliveries included 2,396 SUVs and 3,759 sedans, NIO said.

NIO will complete the capacity ramp for the new ES6 in June to deliver vehicles as soon as possible, Jim Wei, the company's senior vice president of customer operations, said in a June 1 announcement of May delivery figures on the NIO App.

($1 = RMB 7.1212)

NIO Q1 earnings preview: Struggling along for another quarter

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NIO App resumes showing wait time for new ES6

Consumers who lock in their orders for the new ES6 can now expect delivery in about five weeks.

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

's (NYSE: NIO) vehicle configurator page stopped displaying the wait time for the new ES6 last week, and the information is now being displayed again.

Consumers who lock in their orders for the new ES6 now can expect delivery in about five weeks, the latest information on the NIO App shows.

NIO unveiled the new ES6 on April 18, the first day of the Shanghai auto show, and began accepting pre-orders, although the price was not announced at the time.

On May 24, NIO officially launched the new ES6 with a starting price of RMB 368,000 ($51,810), including the battery.

Deliveries began the same night the model was launched, with the NIO App showing an expected delivery date of "May".

NIO began production of the new ES6 based on the designer's recommended configuration combinations, and if consumers purchase these vehicles, deliveries will officially begin on May 25, according to a May 24 NIO App post.

Consumers who wish to customize the vehicles can lock in their orders in the NIO App, and deliveries will begin in mid-June, the company said at the time.

On May 30, NIO's mobile app stopped showing the wait time for the new ES6.

Although NIO produced some new ES6 vehicles in advance for quick delivery, the model is still in the capacity creep phase and contributed minimally to its May deliveries.

NIO delivered 6,155 vehicles in May, down 7.55 percent from April and down 12.37 percent year-on-year, according to data released on June 1.

The deliveries included 2,396 SUVs, and 3,759 sedans, NIO said, without disclosing model-specific breakdowns.

NIO will complete the capacity ramp for the new ES6 in June to deliver vehicles as early as possible, Jim Wei, the company's senior vice president of user operations, said in announcing May delivery figures on the NIO App on June 1.

($1 = RMB 7.1025)

Data table: Latest wait times for NIO models on Jun 6

(Screenshots on June 6.)

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NIO may launch ET5 Touring on Jun 15, more photos revealed

management aims to capitalize on the success of the 001, which proves there is a sizeable local market for luxury sporty EV wagons, Deutsche Bank said.

NIO (NYSE: NIO) will likely launch the ET5 Touring in 10 days, after the electric vehicle (EV) maker said last week that deliveries of the model would begin this month.

The first slide on the front page of NIO's English-language website shows a picture of part of a model's interior detail, with text that reads "Inspired By Life. Witness the launch of our next chapter."

The date on the image implies that the event will take place on June 15.

The information on NIO's website does not suggest that the model is the ET5 Touring, but the image shows that it does not appear to have a HUD (heads-up display), and the ET5 is currently the only one in NIO's product lineup that does not support HUD.

NIO plans to launch a new model based on NT 2.0, the ET5 Touring, a midsize smart electric wagon that will begin deliveries to customers in June, it said when it announced May deliveries on June 1.

The ET5 Touring will be launched globally in June and deliveries will begin in the Chinese market, it said in a separate press release.

On June 2, car blogger Wu Ying, who has about 1 million followers on Weibo, said NIO would launch the ET5 Touring on June 15.

NIO did not confirm the information, though one of its energy service Weibo accounts liked the Weibo post.

More images of the ET5 Touring have also been widely circulated on Weibo in the past few days.

Here are the images shared by car blogger De Lu as well as Dong Maimai.

For the ET5 Touring, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team expects pricing of RMB 335,000 ($47,090) - RMB 345,000, which will be slightly higher than the regular ET5's RMB 328,000.

NIO management aims to capitalize on the success of the Zeekr 001, which proves there is a sizable local market for luxury sporty EV wagons, the team said in a research note sent to investors today.

NIO delivered 31,041 vehicles in the first quarter, with the ET5 contributing 18,703, or 60 percent, according to data monitored by CnEVPost.

($1 = RMB 7.1135)

NIO Q1 earnings preview: Struggling along for another quarter

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NIO Q1 earnings preview: Struggling along for another quarter

Deutsche Bank expects to report soft results for the first quarter, with downside risk to margins, though some relief in on the way.

NIO (NYSE: NIO) will report first-quarter unaudited financial results on Friday, June 9, before the US markets open. As usual, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their preview.

"NIO is suffering from weaker-than-expected demand and is facing its greatest adversity since nearly going bankrupt in 2020," the team said in a research note sent to investors today titled "Struggling along for another quarter."

The team expects NIO to report soft results in the first quarter, with downside risk to margins, and a very weak outlook for sales, and margins in the second quarter.

First quarter earnings

Previous data showed that NIO delivered 31,041 vehicles in the first quarter, slightly above the lower end of the guidance range of 31,000 to 33,000 vehicles.

NIO's previous revenue guidance for the first quarter was between RMB 10.93 billion and RMB 11.54 billion, implying year-on-year growth of about 10.2 percent to 16.5 percent.

Yu's team expects NIO to report revenue of RMB 10.9 billion in the first quarter, with a gross margin of 2.5 percent and adjusted earnings per share of RMB -3.07.

This compares to the current analyst consensus estimates of RMB 11.7 billion, 7.4 percent, and RMB -2.66, respectively, in a Bloomberg survey.

Looking ahead, Yu's team expects NIO to deliver 21,000-23,000 units in the second quarter.

NIO delivered only 12,813 units in April and May combined due to very low demand for the ET7 and ES7, the team noted.

The EV maker delivered 6,155 vehicles in May, down 7.55 percent from 6,658 in April, according to data released on June 1.

Why the weak sales?

While production and supply chain issues appear to be resolved, underlying demand for NIO's premium BEVs has been disappointing as customers opt for gasoline models from German luxury carmakers BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi and EREVs, Yu's team said.

The team attributed NIO's recent weak sales to 3 main factors. The following is from their research note:

1. NIO's pricing is the highest amongst the start-ups and premium BEV demand has been generally weak across the board.

2. The premium segment appears to be electrifying more slowly which may be counter-intuitive to those outside China. Based on our analysis of the premium SUV market (>300k RMB), the BEV mix is only 12% YTD, compared with PHEV (includes EREV) at 18%, leaving 70% for ICE.

This compares with the overall market that is 21% BEV and 10% PHEV, showing customer preferences are quite different depending on the sub-segment.

Our read is the EREV value position is resonating with a much broader audience than anticipated which Li Auto has done a very effective job at maximizing.

3. We believe NIO's brand appeal has hit a wall of sorts as it is struggling to get momentum outside of Shanghai (and surrounding provinces) and also beyond finance/tech social circles.

To illustrate this, we look at the performance of NIO's best-selling ET5. Nearly 40% of sales mix comes from this region and ET5 sells quite poorly in the south despite in theory having the broadest appeal amongst NIO's offerings.

Moreover, based on our channel checks, affluent older customers simply are not buying into the brand (yet) and still prefer traditional BBA cars.

Management will need to figure out ways to augment the appeal of its unique services such as battery swapping. For existing customers, the usage is actually quite high, having set records during recent holiday (69k swaps in one day or ~20% of car parc).

Some relief on the way

NIO officially launched the new ES6 -- the best-selling NIO SUV in history -- in China on May 24, and deliveries began the same night.

In addition to the new ES6, NIO will also begin deliveries of the new ES8 and the ET5 Touring, a derivative of the ET5 sedan, this month.

NIO's deliveries in June will get a boost from a full month of new ES6 deliveries and partial contributions from the ET5 Touring, Yu's team said.

The new ES6 starts at RMB 368,000, higher than expected, as many potential buyers are comparing it to the Li Auto Li L7, which starts at RMB 319,800, the team said.

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

For the ET5 Touring, the team expects pricing to be at RMB 335,000 - RMB 345,000, slightly higher than the regular ET5.

NIO management aims to capitalize on the success of the 001, which proves there is a sizable local market for luxury sport EV wagons, the team said.

Yu's team expects NIO to see only a minimal improvement on vehicle margins in the second quarter.

"While lower battery input costs should help by at least 1-2% sequentially along with phasing out of aggressive promotional activity on first-gen 866 models, this will be partially offset by lack of overhead absorption/higher D&A as overall volume in 2Q will be down materially compared with 1Q," the team wrote .

As sales improve in the second half of the year, auto margins should return to double digits, the team said.

On the operating cost side, with sales under so much pressure, Yu's team suspects NIO management may be forced to show some level of restraint.

"We are skeptical NIO can achieve 'core' breakeven in 4Q23 and overall breakeven in 2024," the team wrote.

Also, cash burn will intensify due to declining deliveries, similar to what XPeng is experiencing, the team said, adding that they suspect NIO management will roll back its previous RMB 10 billion capex outlook.

Notably, the team remains bullish on the company's prospects, despite many investors have lost patience after multiple sales and margin disappointments.

"We think the stock is already embedding in a very negative path forward and we reiterate NIO's longer-term strategy of having multiple brands, holistic charging infrastructure, and an aspirational ecosystem can still ultimately win out once the dust settles on the EV wars," The team wrote.

NIO's local peers react to launch of new ES6

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NIO ES7 and ET7 wait times get slightly longer

Wait times for both the ES7 and ET7 have gone from about 3 weeks to 3-4 weeks.

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

Wait times for two NIO (NYSE: NIO) models have gotten slightly longer, the latest check by CnEVPost shows.

The current wait time for the NIO ES7 is 3-4 weeks, slightly higher than the about 3 weeks as shown previously, according to the NIO App.

NIO launched the ES7 on June 15, 2022, the company's second model based on the NT 2.0 platform after the ET7, and the first SUV on that second-generation platform.

The first delivery of the NIO ES7 was on August 28, 2022. NIO does not disclose ES7's deliveries when it announces monthly delivery figures.

The last change in the model's wait time was on June 1, from about four weeks to about three weeks.

The latest wait time for the NIO ET7 is also 3-4 weeks, slightly higher than the previous wait time of about 3 weeks.

The last change in the sedan's wait time was on April 28, from about 4 weeks to about 3 weeks.

On the first day of the Shanghai auto show on April 18, NIO launched the 2023 ET7 at the same prices as the previous version. Deliveries of the new ET7 began on May 19.

Except for the ES7 and ET7, the expected delivery dates for NIO's other models remain unchanged today.

Deliveries of the new ES8 are expected to start in June, the wait time for the new ES6 is still not shown, the EC7 is about 5 weeks and the ET5 is about 3 weeks, information from the NIO App monitored by CnEVPost shows.

NIO delivered 6,155 vehicles in May, down 7.55 percent from April and down 12.37 percent year-on-year, according to data released on June 1.

NIO plans to launch a new model based on the NT 2.0, the ET5 Touring, a midsize electric wagon that will begin deliveries to customers in June, the company said in announcing the May deliveries.

(Screenshots on June 5.)

Data table: Latest wait times for NIO models

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