Category: Insights

CATL shares plunge after Morgan Stanley downgrades rating to underweight

Second-tier battery makers may adopt a more aggressive pricing strategy to gain market share in the second half of the year, and could face increasing risks to its market share and margins in the domestic market, Morgan Stanley said.

Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating on CATL, citing market share risks, sending shares of the Chinese power battery giant tumbling in morning trading.

"We downgrade CATL to UW as we think second-tier battery makers may adopt more aggressive pricing strategies to gain market share in 2H23," analyst Jack Lu's team said in a research note sent to investors earlier today.

As of press time, CATL shares traded in Shenzhen were down about 6 percent to near their lowest point of the year.

Earlier this year, Morgan Stanley upgraded CATL to equal weight, while being bearish on most battery material makers, as it believes CATL is better able to respond to slowing demand and leverage its cost advantages and bargaining power across the broader value chain.

Now, Lu's team believes that the dual-sourcing battery strategy of local EV companies may help the Tier 2 battery makers achieve their goals, while CATL may face increasing risks in terms of market share and margins in the domestic market.

In February, CATL launched a lithium rebate program to trade cheap lithium resources for market share. However, the subsequent plunge in lithium prices to below RMB 200,000 per ton has led to significant uncertainty about the program, the team said, adding that they have not received any further news about the program.

Meanwhile, battery makers have been offering fairly significant price cuts against the backdrop of falling lithium prices in the second quarter, the team noted.

"Our checks with tier-two battery makers indicate that the price cuts could be in the range of 10-20% during the quarter, with some battery makers likely offering more aggressive cuts than others," the team wrote.

Such actions could threaten CATL's market share in its domestic market, and market share potential is an important stock price driver, the team said.

CATL's power battery installed base in China was 10.26 GWh in April, ranking first with a 40.83 percent share, but down from 44.95 percent in March, China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance (CABIA) data from last month showed. Data for May is Expected to be available in a few days.

(NYSE: NIO) and (NASDAQ: LI) are bringing in new battery suppliers instead of making CATL their sole supplier, Lu's team noted.

"With many new models being launched in the domestic EV market, we think CATL's domestic market share could come under pressure," the team said.

As background, since late last year, regulatory filings for NIO's new NT 2.0-based models have shown battery suppliers that include the smaller CALB in addition to CATL.

Last month, NIO filed to use semi-solid-state batteries from Beijing WeLion New Energy Technology in its models.

On February 8, Li Auto officially launched its first five-seat SUV, the Li L7, and announced the introduction of Sunwoda Electric Vehicle Battery and Svolt Energy as new battery suppliers.

More and more Tier 2 companies are adopting increasingly aggressive pricing strategies, and CATL may have to do the same, according to Lu's team.

Despite a short-term recovery in value chain orders, there will still be excess battery capacity in the short term and price competition is inevitable, the team said.

In addition to the market share pressure it faces domestically, Lu's team believes CATL's overseas path is increasingly uncertain.

"Some investors have argued that CATL's market share overseas is yet to see signs of decline; however, in our view CATL's overseas market is under increasing scrutiny and becoming more and uncertain, limiting visibility," the team wrote.

CATL has tried to penetrate overseas markets through exports and localization of production, but both pathways are increasingly at risk due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the US, the team said.

Notably, Lu's team stressed that if the cost of battery materials and minerals continues to fall, this could give car companies more room to pursue new technologies and other battery performance metrics.

"If this is the case, CATL could regain any lost market share and continue to dominate the global battery market, leveraging its strong R&D capabilities and bargaining power over the supply chain. Our bull case scenario assumes 60% global market share in the long term," the team wrote.

Global EV battery market share in Jan-April: CATL 35.9%, BYD 16.1%

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NIO’s new order intake hits year-to-date high with launch of new ES6, Morgan Stanley says

Confirmed orders for the ES6 accounted for 35-40 percent of new orders in May, meaning inflows since the model's launch in the last week of May have been quite meaningful, Morgan Stanley said.  |  US | NIO HK | NIO SG

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

The new ES6 is critical for NIO (NYSE: NIO) to turn around its weak sales performance. So what has the model contributed to NIO since its launch? A new research note from Morgan Stanley provides a good reference.

NIO's overall new order intake hit a year-to-date high, boosted by the launch of the new ES6, analyst Tim Hsiao's team said in a research note sent to investors on June 5.

The team said they have been tracking some feedback from startups' major sales channels in major Chinese cities since early last year to better understand the latest market dynamics.

The team shared their key findings in their research note while noting the limitations of their sampling methodology.

Confirmed orders for the ES6 accounted for 35-40 percent of new orders in May, implying quite a meaningful inflow since the model hit the market in the last week of May, the team said.

As background, NIO officially launched the new ES6 on May 24 and delivered it to its first owners the same night, the fastest from launch to delivery in the company's history.

Including the battery, the new ES6 has a starting price of RMB 368,000 ($51,680), making it NIO's least expensive SUV.

NIO saw overall traffic at its flagship stores in Tier 1 cities increase 30-40 percent month-on-month in May and continued that momentum in early June after the company brought the new ES6 to market, Hsiao's team said, citing their latest checks.

"Overall store traffic at the stores we track is back to the level seen this February but still 20% below last September's level, when the company rolled out ET5," the team said.

NIO stores' retail conversion rate -- the ratio of orders to traffic -- remained largely steady at 5 percent in May, the team said, adding that consumers need more time to get a closer and deeper look at the new model and they expect conversion rates to climb gradually with broader test drives.

Hsiao's team believes the starting price for the new ES6 looks a bit conservative, but their checks last week at major NIO flagship stores in Tier 1 cities suggest that order momentum has been picking up.

"Certain stores we talked to further suggest that NIO's orders as a whole exceeded 9k units in May. Within this, ES6 basically dominated order inflow after taking confirmed orders from last week of May," the team said.

On a full-month basis, the new ES6 accounted for more than 35 percent of total orders, which suggests a quite meaningful turnaround at the end of the month, the team said.

Orders for NIO look a bit overly concentrated at the moment, Hsiao's team said, adding that some salespeople they interviewed suspended order intake for the ES8 and EC6 during the model changeover.

NIO's sedan models, such as the ET7, saw orders drop by about 20 percent in May from a year earlier, according to the team.

"ET5 and the all-new ES6 contribute about 80% of new orders, implying likely greater volatility if other high-margin models fail to catch up," the team said.

Notably, NIO is still in the process of getting the new ES6 capacity to climb, and the model contributed very little to deliveries last month.

The EV maker delivered 6,155 vehicles in May, down 7.55 percent from April and down 12.37 percent year-on-year, according to data released June 1.

The deliveries included 2,396 SUVs and 3,759 sedans, NIO said.

NIO will complete the capacity ramp for the new ES6 in June to deliver vehicles as soon as possible, Jim Wei, the company's senior vice president of customer operations, said in a June 1 announcement of May delivery figures on the NIO App.

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NIO Q1 earnings preview: Struggling along for another quarter

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NIO Q1 earnings preview: Struggling along for another quarter

Deutsche Bank expects to report soft results for the first quarter, with downside risk to margins, though some relief in on the way.

NIO (NYSE: NIO) will report first-quarter unaudited financial results on Friday, June 9, before the US markets open. As usual, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their preview.

"NIO is suffering from weaker-than-expected demand and is facing its greatest adversity since nearly going bankrupt in 2020," the team said in a research note sent to investors today titled "Struggling along for another quarter."

The team expects NIO to report soft results in the first quarter, with downside risk to margins, and a very weak outlook for sales, and margins in the second quarter.

First quarter earnings

Previous data showed that NIO delivered 31,041 vehicles in the first quarter, slightly above the lower end of the guidance range of 31,000 to 33,000 vehicles.

NIO's previous revenue guidance for the first quarter was between RMB 10.93 billion and RMB 11.54 billion, implying year-on-year growth of about 10.2 percent to 16.5 percent.

Yu's team expects NIO to report revenue of RMB 10.9 billion in the first quarter, with a gross margin of 2.5 percent and adjusted earnings per share of RMB -3.07.

This compares to the current analyst consensus estimates of RMB 11.7 billion, 7.4 percent, and RMB -2.66, respectively, in a Bloomberg survey.

Looking ahead, Yu's team expects NIO to deliver 21,000-23,000 units in the second quarter.

NIO delivered only 12,813 units in April and May combined due to very low demand for the ET7 and ES7, the team noted.

The EV maker delivered 6,155 vehicles in May, down 7.55 percent from 6,658 in April, according to data released on June 1.

Why the weak sales?

While production and supply chain issues appear to be resolved, underlying demand for NIO's premium BEVs has been disappointing as customers opt for gasoline models from German luxury carmakers BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi and EREVs, Yu's team said.

The team attributed NIO's recent weak sales to 3 main factors. The following is from their research note:

1. NIO's pricing is the highest amongst the start-ups and premium BEV demand has been generally weak across the board.

2. The premium segment appears to be electrifying more slowly which may be counter-intuitive to those outside China. Based on our analysis of the premium SUV market (>300k RMB), the BEV mix is only 12% YTD, compared with PHEV (includes EREV) at 18%, leaving 70% for ICE.

This compares with the overall market that is 21% BEV and 10% PHEV, showing customer preferences are quite different depending on the sub-segment.

Our read is the EREV value position is resonating with a much broader audience than anticipated which Li Auto has done a very effective job at maximizing.

3. We believe NIO's brand appeal has hit a wall of sorts as it is struggling to get momentum outside of Shanghai (and surrounding provinces) and also beyond finance/tech social circles.

To illustrate this, we look at the performance of NIO's best-selling ET5. Nearly 40% of sales mix comes from this region and ET5 sells quite poorly in the south despite in theory having the broadest appeal amongst NIO's offerings.

Moreover, based on our channel checks, affluent older customers simply are not buying into the brand (yet) and still prefer traditional BBA cars.

Management will need to figure out ways to augment the appeal of its unique services such as battery swapping. For existing customers, the usage is actually quite high, having set records during recent holiday (69k swaps in one day or ~20% of car parc).

Some relief on the way

NIO officially launched the new ES6 -- the best-selling NIO SUV in history -- in China on May 24, and deliveries began the same night.

In addition to the new ES6, NIO will also begin deliveries of the new ES8 and the ET5 Touring, a derivative of the ET5 sedan, this month.

NIO's deliveries in June will get a boost from a full month of new ES6 deliveries and partial contributions from the ET5 Touring, Yu's team said.

The new ES6 starts at RMB 368,000, higher than expected, as many potential buyers are comparing it to the Li Auto Li L7, which starts at RMB 319,800, the team said.

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

For the ET5 Touring, the team expects pricing to be at RMB 335,000 - RMB 345,000, slightly higher than the regular ET5.

NIO management aims to capitalize on the success of the 001, which proves there is a sizable local market for luxury sport EV wagons, the team said.

Yu's team expects NIO to see only a minimal improvement on vehicle margins in the second quarter.

"While lower battery input costs should help by at least 1-2% sequentially along with phasing out of aggressive promotional activity on first-gen 866 models, this will be partially offset by lack of overhead absorption/higher D&A as overall volume in 2Q will be down materially compared with 1Q," the team wrote .

As sales improve in the second half of the year, auto margins should return to double digits, the team said.

On the operating cost side, with sales under so much pressure, Yu's team suspects NIO management may be forced to show some level of restraint.

"We are skeptical NIO can achieve 'core' breakeven in 4Q23 and overall breakeven in 2024," the team wrote.

Also, cash burn will intensify due to declining deliveries, similar to what XPeng is experiencing, the team said, adding that they suspect NIO management will roll back its previous RMB 10 billion capex outlook.

Notably, the team remains bullish on the company's prospects, despite many investors have lost patience after multiple sales and margin disappointments.

"We think the stock is already embedding in a very negative path forward and we reiterate NIO's longer-term strategy of having multiple brands, holistic charging infrastructure, and an aspirational ecosystem can still ultimately win out once the dust settles on the EV wars," The team wrote.

NIO's local peers react to launch of new ES6

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XPeng making its last stand with G6, says Deutsche Bank

With margins and cash burn looking worse following first-quarter earnings, management may be making its last stand with the G6, Deutsche Bank said.  |  XPeng US | XPeng HK

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XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) is expected to officially launch its new SUV, the G6, late next month, which analysts say will be crucial as the company continues to face weak sales and financial performance.

"With margins and cash burn looking materially worse following 1Q earnings, we believe management may be making its last stand with the G6," Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team said in a research note sent to investors yesterday.

The team's previous view assumed XPeng could see stable natural margin improvement from the sharp drop in battery input prices, but those savings were mostly offset by incremental promotional activity and a poor mix.

" Therefore, the importance of the upcoming G6 has become even GREATER," the team wrote.

XPeng reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter earnings on May 24, with gross margins plunging to 1.7 percent. As a comparison, that figure was 12.2 percent and 8.7 percent in the same quarter last year and the fourth quarter of 2022, respectively.

The company reported a negative 2.5 percent vehicle margin in the first quarter, compared to 10.4 percent in the same period in 2022 and 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The decline was due to increased sales promotions and the expiration of the new energy vehicle (NEV) subsidy in China, XPeng said.

XPeng's new SUV, the G6, will officially launch in June, with volume deliveries starting in July, and production capacity will climb quickly, its management said in a May 24 analyst call after announcing first-quarter earnings.

The G6 will be a hot seller in China's new energy SUV market priced between 200,000 yuan ($28,200) and 300,000 yuan, and will enable XPeng's total deliveries to grow well above the industry's pace in the third quarter, the company said.

The G6 has been set aside about two months from the start of production to delivery, and XPeng expects the model to reach more than twice the sales of the P7i, its management said.

That means, according to Yu's team, that XPeng management expects the G6 to sell 6,000-8,000 units a month.

The G6 needs to be successful for XPeng to be truly relevant to the market again, the team said.

XPeng will likely price the G6 significantly lower than the Model Y (RMB 263,900), hoping to attract consumers with a sleeker design and updated interior, the team said, adding that the X is already taking this approach with a starting price of just RMB 190,000.

A leaked image on Chinese social media on May 22 showed XPeng seeing the first production vehicle of the G6 roll off the line.

XPeng expects second-quarter vehicle deliveries to be between 21,000 and 22,000, and given that it delivered 7,079 vehicles in April, the guidance means the company expects it will deliver a total of 13,921 to 14,921 vehicles in May and June.

Yu's team also noted that XPeng's cash burn trajectory was worse than expected.

"XPeng exited 1Q23 with <25bn RMB in net cash as A/P became a big drag on working capital. This was caused by poor sales performance and also suggests to us suppliers are becoming less accommodative," the team wrote.

After months of lackluster G9 demand, XPeng management may be under pressure from suppliers to be more conservative with its outlook, the team said.

That said, XPeng's operating expenses and capex discipline are still very much intact and should at least get the company through most of next year, Yu's team said.

($1 = RMB 7.0951)

XPeng Q1 earnings miss expectations, gross margin falls to 1.7%

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XPeng Q1 earnings: Deutsche Bank’s first look

" delivered even softer 1Q23 results than we previewed, accompanied by a muted 2Q outlook," Edison Yu's team said.

XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter earnings today, and as usual, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their first look.

Here is the research note the team sent to investors today.

1Q23 Earnings First Look

XPeng delivered even softer 1Q23 results than we previewed, accompanied by a muted 2Q outlook.

Volume for 1Q was already reported at 18,230 units, leading to revenue of 4.03bn RMB, essentially in line with our 4.04bn estimate; vehicle pricing was slightly lower, offset by "Services and other."

Total gross margin declined 700bps QoQ to just 1.7%, missing our 5.0% estimate (consensus 6.1%), driven by lower vehicle margin (-2.5% vs. our 0.4% due to aggressive price cuts/promotions).

Opex of 2,654m came in below our model as higher R&D was offset by lower SG&A.

All together, EPS of (2.57) came in about in line with our (2.52) forecast.

Management provided a muted 2Q23 outlook, calling for 21,000-22,000 deliveries, vs. our 24,000 forecast, translating into 4.5-4.7bn RMB in revenue (vs. our 5.6bn).

This implies May/June seeing little to no MoM improvement as April garnered 7,079 units and pricing/mix facing further pressure (G9 demand still struggling and P7i constrained by component supply).

On the earnings call, we will look for further commentary on the exact timing of G6 deliveries (SOP seemingly has already begun), pricing, and volume expectations.

XPeng Q1 earnings miss expectations, gross margin falls to 1.7%

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Price competition in China auto industry poised to ease in May, analysts say

Discounts on passenger cars in China continued to expand in April, but the industry is seeing some positive changes heading into May.

Price competition in China auto industry poised to ease in May, analysts say-CnEVPost

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The price wars that erupted in the Chinese auto industry in March carried over into April. However, analysts see fewer car discounts heading into May.

Discounts on passenger cars in China continued to expand in April, but the industry saw some positive changes heading into May, with price competition, especially for fuel vehicles, expected to ease, said CITIC Securities analyst Zhang Ruohai's team in a research note today.

These changes include the fact that some automakers are no longer offering increased discounts to dealers, and have even scaled back compared to the first quarter, according to the team.

With China allowing some fuel models based on existing emission standards to extend their sales period by six months until the end of this year, there is much less urgency for these models to clear inventory in the short term, the team noted.

In addition, inventory levels in the Chinese auto industry fell in April, with dealer inventory levels returning to a relatively balanced position, the team said.

From January to April, discounts offered by the Chinese auto industry were generally increasing, with actual selling price to manufacturer guide price ratios of 91.3 percent, 92.4 percent, 90.8 percent and 90.2 percent, respectively, according to an indicator compiled by the team.

This means that in addition to the price pickup in February, discounts expanded in March and April, the team said, adding that the indicator was 88.1 percent and 87.3 percent for fuel cars and 96.84 percent and 96.78 percent for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the past two months, respectively.

Against the backdrop of overall weak consumer demand for cars, the price wars had a boost to sales of some models, but depressed total sales as consumer wait-and-see sentiment increased, according to the team.

In March, when the price war was at its most intense, Chinese passenger car retail sales were 1.587 million units, up 0.3 percent year-on-year and up 14.3 percent from February, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

In April, China's passenger car retail sales were 1.63 million units, up 55.5 percent year-on-year and up 2.5 percent from March.

From May 1 to 14, China's passenger car retail sales were 706,000 units, up 55 percent year-on-year and up 24 percent from the same period last month, according to data released yesterday by the CPCA.

China NEV retail up 101% YoY in May 1-14, CPCA data show

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XPeng Q1 earnings preview: Counting down to G6

XPeng's financial performance in the first quarter and its outlook for the second quarter will be weak, though the company may see a turnaround after the launch of G6, according to Edison Yu's team.

XPeng Q1 earnings preview: Counting down to G6-CnEVPost

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) will report its unaudited financial results for the first quarter on May 24 before the US markets open. As usual, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their preview.

XPeng's performance will be weak in the first quarter and the outlook for the second quarter is likely to be subdued, but a turnaround in the second half of this year may be in the cards after the launch of the new SUV G6, according to a research note sent to investors today.

First quarter earnings

Previously released data showed that XPeng delivered 18,230 vehicles in the first quarter, slightly above the lower end of the guidance range of 18,000 to 19,000 vehicles.

The company's previous revenue guidance for the first quarter was RMB 4 billion to RMB 4.2 billion, a decrease of about 43.7 percent to 46.3 percent year on year.

XPeng sales have been weak since the second half of last year, with deliveries of just 5,218 units in January. It rebounded to 7,079 units in April, essentially flat from March.

Yu's team expects XPeng to report revenue of RMB 4.04 billion and adjusted earnings per share of RMB -2.52 for the first quarter.

The team expects XPeng's gross margin to be 5.0 percent and vehicle margin to be 0.4 percent in the first quarter, or down 530 basis points sequentially, as price cuts and promotions hurt margins.

This compares to the current consensus analyst estimates of RMB 4.24 billion, 6.1 percent and RMB -2.09, respectively, in a Bloomberg survey.

Subdued second quarter

Yu's team believes that XPeng deliveries are likely to be subdued in the second quarter as the G9 has struggled to gain order flow and supply constraints have hampered P7i deliveries.

G9 sales have been below 1,000 units for the past three months, and a summer price cut is likely, the team said.

XPeng management has said that orders for the P7i have increased unexpectedly and will increase more meaningfully in June and beyond. As a result, Yu's team expects XPeng to guide for low-mid 20,000 range second-quarter deliveries.

Deliveries of the upcoming G6 will begin in late June and the model will not make a significant contribution in the second quarter, according to the team.

G6 is the swing factor

In the company's fourth-quarter earnings call on March 17, XPeng management said the G6 will be officially launched and delivered by the end of the second quarter, with a price range of RMB 200,000 ($28,590) to RMB 300,000.

XPeng's monthly sales target for the G6 is 2-3 times that of the P7, He Xiaopeng, the company's chairman and CEO, said during the call.

XPeng unveiled a new architecture called SEPA (Smart Electric Platform Architecture) 2.0 at a technology conference in Shanghai on April 16, saying the G6 will be the first model built on the architecture.

The architecture will shorten the development cycle of future models by 20 percent and optimize development efficiency significantly. Interchangeability and interoperability of common and modular components between new models will reach 80 percent, enabling XPeng to meet diverse customer needs at an optimized cost, it said at the time.

Yu's team believes that the G6 will need to be successful for XPeng to be truly relevant again in the marketplace.

On a relative basis, XPeng management sees the G6 selling 2-3 times as many units as the P7, which means at least more than 5,000 units per month, according to Yu's team.

"Our view is XPeng will price G6 below Model Y in hopes of attracting consumers with its sleeker design and newer interior," the team wrote.

With the increased production of the G6, XPeng management believes total monthly deliveries could reach 15,000 units at some point in the third quarter.

"This seems achievable and we model XPeng reaching this level in Sep with potentially some help from a midcycle P5 face-lift ('P5i')," the team said.

($1 = RMB 6.9959)

XPeng G6 debuts at Shanghai auto show

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Chinese consumers’ intent to buy NEVs rises for 6th consecutive year, JD Power study shows

Chinese consumers' intent to buy NEVs continues to rise, further squeezing the share of the fuel vehicle market, according to JD Power.

China passenger NEV retail drops 3.6% MoM to 527,000 in Apr, CPCA data show-CnEVPost

Among Chinese consumers who intend to buy a new vehicle in the next six months, the share of those considering new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 33 percent, up 6 percentage points from 27 percent in 2022, for the sixth consecutive year of increases, according to a study by US market research firm JD Power.

JD Power released the figures in its China New Vehicle Intender Study (NVIS) yesterday, saying the long-term trend toward NEVs is becoming clearer.

Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 527,000 units in April, contributing 32.3 percent of all passenger vehicle sales of 1.63 million units, according to data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) on May 9.

For comparison, the ratio was 27.1 percent in April last year and only 7.3 percent in January 2021.

In 2023, Chinese consumers' intent to buy NEVs continues to rise, further squeezing the share of the fuel vehicle market, according to JD Power. Intended buyers are consumers who plan to purchase a vehicle in the next six months.

The percentage of consumers considering new energy SUVs has increased significantly, from 11 percent last year to 16 percent this year, and is already on par with new energy sedans, according to JD Power.

Among the new energy models favored most by consumers, luxury plug-in hybrid SUVs and midsize all-electric SUVs saw the largest potential consumer growth, increasing by 6 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively.

The percentage of consumers considering purchasing compact pure electric sedans and mid-size pure electric sedans declined significantly, by 7.5 percent and 5.4 percent respectively.

Going forward, there is a significant trend of consumption upgrading alongside rising penetration of NEVs, according to JD Power.

Data released by the CPCA earlier this week also showed the trend, with retail sales of mini-electric vehicle specialist SAIC-GM-Wuling down 15.9 percent year-on-year in January-April and budget EV maker down 14 percent year-on-year in the period.

, which is targeting the higher-end market, saw retail sales in China increase 61.5 percent year-on-year during January to April, with (NASDAQ: LI) up 118.1 percent and NIO (NYSE: NIO) up 22.2 percent. All three of these companies' sales were dominated by SUVs.

Among other findings, JD Power said more than half of consumers prefer to buy local brands in China, with new car-making brands, in particular, more popular.

For the second year in a row, the percentage of people considering buying a local brand vehicle exceeded 50 percent. For Japanese brands the proportion slipped to 12 percent from 15 percent last year, while German brands rose to 17 percent from 13 percent.

Potential consumers with higher education and higher budgets are more receptive to battery swap and battery leasing sales models, JD Power said.

Potential consumers with adequate budgets are more willing to pay for the battery swap model and also have a stronger willingness to buy NEVs, according to the study.

BMW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz had the highest luxury brand influence scores in the JD Power study, scoring 683, 680 and 661 out of a total of 1,000 points, respectively.

NIO ranked 10th with a score of 607, the highest score among local Chinese luxury brands and higher than Porsche's 605.

HiPhi and IM Motors are the other two brands that made it into this luxury brand ranking, with scores of 549 and 542, respectively.

In the mainstream brand influence score, BYD ranked first with 678 points, Tesla 11th with 634 points, 15th with 631 points, and Li Auto in 34th place with 598 points.

Full CPCA rankings: Top-selling models and automakers in China in Apr

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Li Auto Q1 earnings: Deutsche Bank’s first look

The true test will be how sustainable this run-rate is in the second half of this year, Edison Yu's team said.  |  Li Auto US | Li Auto HK

Li Auto Q1 earnings: Deutsche Bank's first look-CnEVPost

Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) today reported first-quarter earnings that beat expectations, and Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their first look in a research note sent to investors.

Without further ado, here's what the team's research note had to say.

Li Auto delivered mostly strong 1Q results along with a solid volume outlook. Deliveries were already reported for 1Q at 52,584 units, leading to revenue of 18.7bn RMB, beating our 17.7bn forecast due to higher ASPs.

Impressively, while volume was toward the low-end of guidance, sales were above the high-end despite mix headwinds.

Total gross margin of 20.4% was slightly below our 20.7% estimate on softer vehicle margin of 19.8% (-20bps QoQ; vs. our 20.5%), suggesting that launch costs were heavier and/or BOM of new models may be greater than anticipated as pricing didn't flow through.

Opex of 3.5bn was below our expectation, mainly due to lower R&D, leading to higher-than-expected net profit; adjusted EPS was 1.35, easily ahead of DBe/consensus, helped by higher interest/ investment and other income (>30c benefit).

Free cash flow came in just below 7bn, materially better than anticipated, mainly due to working capital performance on payables.

Management provided solid 2Q guidance calling for 76,000-81,000 in deliveries, ahead of our 75,000 forecast, implying a small step-up from April's 25,681 units.

The company already expressed confidence in reaching 25,000-30,000 deliveries this month once the cheaper L7 and L8 "Air" trims garner a full month of availability.

The true test will be how sustainable this run-rate is in the 2H. We have seen the L9/L8 drop off somewhat in monthly volume already.

Revenue is expected to be 24.22-25.86bn RMB in 2Q, above DBe/consensus estimates and implying slightly better ASP/mix than our model.

Li Auto sees Q1 revenue beat expectations, net income up 252% from Q4

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NEV demand in China expected to pick up in Q2, analysts say

Demand for NEVs is expected to pick up in the second quarter as lithium carbonate prices stabilize, according to analysts at CITIC Securities.

NEV demand in China expected to pick up in Q2, analysts say-CnEVPost

Chinese consumers' wait-and-see sentiment when it comes to buying new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to ease significantly in the second quarter, which will facilitate a recovery in demand for the sector, local analysts said.

In the first quarter, China's overall NEV sales growth slowed as demand was overdrawn before subsidies for NEV purchases were withdrawn late last year, coupled with strong consumer wait-and-see sentiment, said CITIC Securities analyst Yuan Jiancong's team in a research note today.

For consumers, the sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices and price cuts by automakers have fueled their wait-and-see, according to the team.

In the second quarter, demand for NEVs is expected to pick up as lithium carbonate prices stabilize, the team said.

China's state subsidy for NEV purchases expired at the end of last year. To take advantage of the subsidy, some consumers who had planned to buy vehicles in 2023 may have advanced their purchase plans, leading to weak NEV sales in the first quarter.

Retail NEV sales in China were about 1.32 million units in the first quarter, up 23.72 percent year-on-year, but down 26.62 percent from the fourth quarter, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

In addition to the withdrawal of subsidies, the price of lithium carbonate, a key raw material for batteries, has continued to fall since the end of last year, with some electric vehicle companies beginning to cut prices and subsequently seeing a price war across the auto industry.

As of April 21, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate had not seen a single-day gain this year, falling 65 percent from the beginning of the year.

After that, the price of lithium carbonate has largely stabilized, and as of today, battery grade lithium carbonate has risen for the eighth day in a row.

($1 = RMB 6.9266)

Battery grade lithium carbonate up RMB 4,000 per ton

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