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Category: eV
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Li Auto CEO predicts China NEV penetration to exceed 80% by Dec 2025
The years 2023-2025 for China's smart EV market will be like the last three years of World War II in history from 1943-1945, said Li Xiang.
Li Xiang, founder, chairman and CEO of Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI), predicted a month ago that China's new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration rate would reach 70 percent by the fourth quarter of 2025.
Now, perhaps fueled by optimism from the Shanghai auto show, he's making an even bolder prediction.
By December 2025, NEVs will account for more than 80 percent of all new vehicle sales in China, Li said in his WeChat status today, adding that the five permanent NEV brands will be born by then.
The years 2023-2025 for China's smart EV market will be like the last three years of World War II in history from 1943-1945, Li said.
Notably, this comes just a month after Li last made a bold prediction.
On March 25, Li said on Weibo that NEVs will contribute 70 percent of new car sales in China by the fourth quarter of 2025.
It's crossing the chasm theory that growth starts to accelerate when a new thing accounts for more than 30 percent, he said.
For the full year 2022, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 5.67 million units, up 90 percent year-on-year, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
Retail sales of all passenger vehicles in China in 2022 were 20.54 million units, up 1.9 percent year-on-year. This represents a 27.6 percent penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China in 2022.
In March, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 543,000 units, contributing 34.2 percent of all passenger vehicle sales of 1,587,000 units.
In the past few years, annual passenger car sales in China have remained at about 20 million units per year, or about 1.67 million units per month.
If Li's latest forecast turns out to be accurate, it would mean that by December 2025, China's monthly NEV sales will exceed 1.3 million units.
Li Auto is one of the most successful EV startups in China, currently offering three models -- Li L7, Li L8 and Li L9 -- all extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs).
The company delivered 20,823 vehicles in March, the second time since last December that it has exceeded 20,000 units.
Li Auto delivered 52,584 vehicles in the first quarter, up 65.8 percent year-on-year and up 13.53 percent from the fourth quarter of last year.
On April 18, Li Auto officially unveiled its all-electric solution based on the 800 V high-voltage platform, capable of giving a battery electric vehicle (BEV) a 400 km range on a 10-minute charge.
With the release of this solution, Li Auto will officially enter a phase of parallel development of its EREV and BEV product lines. By 2025, Li Auto's product array will include one super flagship model, five EREVs, and five BEVs, it said.
By that time, Li Auto's models for the market priced above RMB 200,000 will fully meet the needs of family users, the company said.
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Shanghai auto show: Takeaways from Deutsche Bank
Edison Yu's team shares their key takeaways on new model pricing, design, ADAS, and ultra-fast charging.
(Image credit: CnEVPost)
As one of the most important auto shows in several years, the ongoing Shanghai auto show is attracting a lot of interest. In a research note sent to investors today, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team shares their thoughts on the event.
This year's Shanghai auto show began last week, with media days on April 18-19, professional visitor days on April 20-21, and general public access on April 22 - 27.
Yu's team shared their four key takeaways regarding new model pricing, local design, Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) capabilities, and ultra-fast charging.
"Pricing to be competitive at least through early 2024 With the price war raging on, we continue to expect OEMs to be aggressive as market share is the #1 priority," the team wrote.
Although no significant price cuts were announced at the show, automakers were very careful in disclosing prices.
XPeng did not reveal pricing details for the G6 other than the previous range of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan. Likewise, NIO did not detail the price of the new ES6, the team noted.
(Image credit: CnEVPost)
If demand stays low, there could be another wave of price cuts, so the automakers do not want to overprice their new models. In addition, lithium carbonate prices have fallen sharply, providing more cushion for pure electric vehicles, Yu's team said.
The team expects G6 pricing to trend toward the lower end of the range previously mentioned by XPeng, especially given that the Zeekr X starts at just 190,000 yuan and the Model Y could see one more price cut this year.
To offset the drop in average selling price, automakers are taking steps to squeeze the structural costs of new platforms, such as XPeng's SEPA 2.0 platform, according to the team.
In terms of product design, the quality of local models is improving rapidly, and several local automakers began turning to foreign talent a few years ago to speed up the process, the team said.
BYD's design chief is Wolfang Egger, previously at Audi, and NIO's vice president of design is Kris Tomasson who came over from BMW, the team noted.
The team highlighted two models that really showcase this shift: the BYD Song L and the Hozon Neta GT Speedster.
(Image credit: CnEVPost)
"There are many other examples of bold and sleek design at the show and we expect this to be the new norm as the market shifts from ICE to EV," the team wrote.
With design and cost advantages, a natural extension is to export. During the show, Zeekr provided more details about its European strategy, the team noted.
On the ADAS side, Yu's team said subscriptions have proven difficult to monetize.
"We would have thought selling an ADAS subscription service could be easy next step. However, consumers are reluctant to adopt this business model," the team wrote.
XPeng is trying to dramatically reduce the cost of its XNGP system while improving its performance.
Li Auto is currently beta testing the City NOA software with a goal of rolling it out to 100 cities nationwide by the end of 2023. The company believes its AD Max 3.0 system will be able to operate without HD maps and guarantees that all upgrades will be free for life with no subscription fees, the team noted.
NIO's NOP+ beta program is expected to end at the end of June and then begin charging subscribers RMB 380 per month.
"NIO is offering 2 years for free to 2023 ET7 buyers who pay the order deposit before June and we would expect this subscription to be increasingly used a promotional bundle to boost sales," the team wrote.
In terms of ultra-fast charging facilities, Yu's team said that automakers are just beginning to build up such capabilities, and real-world charging requires synchronization of the car, charger and grid. If any part becomes a bottleneck, charging speeds will not reach maximum performance.
NIO's ultra-fast 500 kW charger is now in service and open to other brands.
XPeng is rapidly rolling out its new S4 480 kW DC ultra-fast charging station, with a target of 500 this year.
Li Auto is focused on 800V solutions and expects its upcoming battery electric vehicle (BEV)to have 400 km of range in 10 minutes, the team noted.
Li Auto announced on April 18 that its first all-electric model will be the world's first to feature CATL's 4C Qilin Battery.
By 2025, Li Auto's product array will include a super flagship model, five extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), and five BEVs, the company said.
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