It would be the first pure EV from Li Auto.
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Category: eMobility
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Shanghai auto show: Takeaways from Deutsche Bank
Edison Yu's team shares their key takeaways on new model pricing, design, ADAS, and ultra-fast charging.
(Image credit: CnEVPost)
As one of the most important auto shows in several years, the ongoing Shanghai auto show is attracting a lot of interest. In a research note sent to investors today, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team shares their thoughts on the event.
This year's Shanghai auto show began last week, with media days on April 18-19, professional visitor days on April 20-21, and general public access on April 22 - 27.
Yu's team shared their four key takeaways regarding new model pricing, local design, Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) capabilities, and ultra-fast charging.
"Pricing to be competitive at least through early 2024 With the price war raging on, we continue to expect OEMs to be aggressive as market share is the #1 priority," the team wrote.
Although no significant price cuts were announced at the show, automakers were very careful in disclosing prices.
XPeng did not reveal pricing details for the G6 other than the previous range of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan. Likewise, NIO did not detail the price of the new ES6, the team noted.
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If demand stays low, there could be another wave of price cuts, so the automakers do not want to overprice their new models. In addition, lithium carbonate prices have fallen sharply, providing more cushion for pure electric vehicles, Yu's team said.
The team expects G6 pricing to trend toward the lower end of the range previously mentioned by XPeng, especially given that the Zeekr X starts at just 190,000 yuan and the Model Y could see one more price cut this year.
To offset the drop in average selling price, automakers are taking steps to squeeze the structural costs of new platforms, such as XPeng's SEPA 2.0 platform, according to the team.
In terms of product design, the quality of local models is improving rapidly, and several local automakers began turning to foreign talent a few years ago to speed up the process, the team said.
BYD's design chief is Wolfang Egger, previously at Audi, and NIO's vice president of design is Kris Tomasson who came over from BMW, the team noted.
The team highlighted two models that really showcase this shift: the BYD Song L and the Hozon Neta GT Speedster.
(Image credit: CnEVPost)
"There are many other examples of bold and sleek design at the show and we expect this to be the new norm as the market shifts from ICE to EV," the team wrote.
With design and cost advantages, a natural extension is to export. During the show, Zeekr provided more details about its European strategy, the team noted.
On the ADAS side, Yu's team said subscriptions have proven difficult to monetize.
"We would have thought selling an ADAS subscription service could be easy next step. However, consumers are reluctant to adopt this business model," the team wrote.
XPeng is trying to dramatically reduce the cost of its XNGP system while improving its performance.
Li Auto is currently beta testing the City NOA software with a goal of rolling it out to 100 cities nationwide by the end of 2023. The company believes its AD Max 3.0 system will be able to operate without HD maps and guarantees that all upgrades will be free for life with no subscription fees, the team noted.
NIO's NOP+ beta program is expected to end at the end of June and then begin charging subscribers RMB 380 per month.
"NIO is offering 2 years for free to 2023 ET7 buyers who pay the order deposit before June and we would expect this subscription to be increasingly used a promotional bundle to boost sales," the team wrote.
In terms of ultra-fast charging facilities, Yu's team said that automakers are just beginning to build up such capabilities, and real-world charging requires synchronization of the car, charger and grid. If any part becomes a bottleneck, charging speeds will not reach maximum performance.
NIO's ultra-fast 500 kW charger is now in service and open to other brands.
XPeng is rapidly rolling out its new S4 480 kW DC ultra-fast charging station, with a target of 500 this year.
Li Auto is focused on 800V solutions and expects its upcoming battery electric vehicle (BEV)to have 400 km of range in 10 minutes, the team noted.
Li Auto announced on April 18 that its first all-electric model will be the world's first to feature CATL's 4C Qilin Battery.
By 2025, Li Auto's product array will include a super flagship model, five extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), and five BEVs, the company said.
Shanghai auto show: EVs take center stage, nearly 40 models equipped with LiDARs
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Geely Galaxy sees 1st production vehicles of L7 SUV roll off line
Geely Galaxy said yesterday that the L7 has accumulated more than 10,000 orders since it began allowing consumer pre-orders two months ago, although the model's price has not yet been announced.
(Image credit: Geely Galaxy)
Geely Galaxy, the new energy vehicle (NEV) sub-brand of Geely Auto Group, saw the first production vehicles of its first model, the L7, roll off the production line, signaling that the model is not far from being officially launched and delivered.
The first production vehicles of the L7 have rolled off the production line and are being shipped across China, Geely Galaxy announced today on Weibo.
Yesterday, Geely Galaxy said the L7 has accumulated more than 10,000 orders since it began allowing consumer pre-orders two months ago, although the model's price has not yet been announced.
Geely Auto Group officially launched the new Geely Galaxy brand on February 24 and unveiled the first production model, the L7, saying the SUV will be available in the second quarter of this year.
The new brand plans to launch a cumulative total of seven models by 2025, including four plug-in hybrid models in the L series and three all-electric models in the E series.
Geely Galaxy will launch the L6 in the third quarter of 2023, the L5 in the second quarter of 2024, and the L9 in 2025.
In the all-electric product sequence, Geely Galaxy will launch the E8 in the fourth quarter of 2023, the E7 in the second quarter of 2024 and will launch the E6 in the third quarter of 2024.
The Geely Galaxy L7 is a hybrid SUV with a length, width and height of 4,700 mm, 1,905 mm and 1,685 mm, respectively, and a wheelbase of 2,785 mm.
The vehicle is powered by a 1.5T engine with a thermal efficiency of 44.26 percent, ranking first among known production engines, Geely said at the February 24 launch event.
Geely announced at that launch that the L7 was available for pre-order, but the price was not revealed. The model is currently expected to cost less than 200,000 yuan ($29,000).
The Geely Galaxy launch is one of Geely's moves to meet its sales targets for the year and to increase its electrification transition.
Geely Auto Group CEO Gan Jiayue said in January that the group's sales target for 2023 is 1.65 million vehicles, including 600,000 NEVs.
Geely Auto Group sold 1.43 million vehicles in 2022, up 8 percent from a year earlier, including about 330,000 NEVs, according to data monitored by CnEVPost.
($1 = RMB 6.8963)
Geely Galaxy brand officially launched, to roll out 7 models by 2025
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Lithium price in China sees 1st rise this year as analysts expect short-term rebound
Lithium prices are expected to stop falling in the near term, but will continue their downward trend over the next two years, analysts say.
The epic decline in lithium carbonate prices is starting to see signs of stopping.
Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price in China rose RMB 2,500 ($362) per ton today to an average of RMB 137,500 per ton, the first single-day increase this year, according to data from Mysteel.
Battery-grade lithium carbonate, on the other hand, remained at RMB 180,000 per ton for the third consecutive day, according to the data.
With the rapid growth of China's electric vehicle (EV) industry, prices for the key raw material for batteries have risen rapidly in the past two years.
At one point in late November last year, battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at RMB 590,000 per ton in China, about 14 times the average price of RMB 41,000 per ton in June 2020.
Since then, lithium carbonate prices have continued their downward spiral, and even a production disruption in Yichun, Jiangxi, nicknamed the "lithium capital of Asia," at the end of February did not stop the downward trend.
Earlier this month, a local media outlet reported that half of Yichun's four major lithium producers had opted to shut down production to stem the downward price trend.
The accelerating downward trend in lithium carbonate prices is unsustainable, with lithium prices expected to gradually stabilize and possibly even rebound in the short term as inventories decrease, said Chinese brokerage CICC analyst Zhang Jiaming's team in an April 20 research note.
Some companies were choosing to cut production due to oversupply, which is a normal phenomenon that would occur during price reductions, the team said.
However, the team believes the downward trend in lithium prices may not end soon, as the global lithium supply is still in surplus.
Market forces will bring a concentration of new capacity coming online and create supply growth that outpaces demand growth, which is the main driver of the easing lithium supply and demand crunch, the team said.
"We expect global lithium resource supply to grow from 760,000 tons to 1,973,000 tons in 2022-2025, with a CAGR of 37 percent," the team wrote.
Separately, CITIC Securities analyst Bai Junfei's team said in an April 17 research note that current lithium prices have fallen near key cost support levels and could stop falling if downstream demand picks up.
Downstream producers have material inventories that are all at extremely low levels, and overseas lithium prices are at a significant premium to Chinese lithium prices, which are also supportive factors, according to the team.
Notably, CITIC Securities shares CICC's view that lithium prices still have room to fall, as the oversupply will continue.
Global new lithium supply will reach 350,000 tons in 2023, and show a trend of quarterly increase, according to CITIC Securities.
In 2023-2025, total global lithium supply will grow to 1.2 million tons, 1.73 million tons and 2.32 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 44 percent, 41 percent and 34 percent, corresponding to a supply surplus of 74,000 tons, 397,000 tons and 438,000 tons, respectively, according to the team.
As the oversupply expands, lithium prices will still have downward pressure in 2024 and 2025, and there is a risk of further price declines after a temporary stop, the team said.
(1 $= RMB 6.9023)
Analysts explain how falling lithium carbonate prices affect EV costs
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