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"Even if we exclude these one-time headwinds, vehicle of margin of 13.5% would have been a miss and lowest since 2Q20," Deutsche Bank said.
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NIO's vehicle margin was negatively impacted by 6.7 percentage points in the fourth quarter due to accelerated depreciation of production facilities and the loss of purchase commitments for older models.
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Li Auto has an internal goal of 25,000-30,000 monthly deliveries and will aim to achieve that goal in the second quarter.
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If Li Auto maintains the current level of demand for the second half of the year, there would be upside to consensus estimates, according to Edison Yu's team.
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Li Auto guided for first-quarter deliveries of 52,000 to 55,000 vehicles, meaning it expects to deliver a total of 36,859 to 39,859 vehicles in February and March.
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Deutsche Bank believes the true test for Li Auto will come in the second half of the year.
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Deutsche Bank's Edison Yu's team thinks NIO's performance will improve significantly in the second half of the year, but there's a big "IF" in it.
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XPeng delivered 22,204 vehicles in the fourth quarter, above the upper end of the 20,000 to 21,000 guidance range it previously provided.
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NIO delivered 40,052 vehicles in the fourth quarter, above the upper end of its lowered guidance range of 38,500 to 39,500 vehicles.
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Li Auto has previously released data showing it delivered 46,319 vehicles in the fourth quarter, up 31.51 percent year-on-year and up 74.63 percent from the third quarter.
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