Daily Archive: June 8, 2023

China contributes 56% of global EV sales in Q1, Counterpoint says

The US overtook Germany as the world's second-largest EV market in the first quarter, while China remained in the lead, Counterpoint said.

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In the first quarter, the US overtook Germany as the world's second-largest electric vehicle (EV) market, while China still holds the lead, market research firm Counterpoint Research said in a report yesterday.

Global passenger EV sales grew 32 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, with one in seven vehicles sold in the quarter being electric, the report said.

Global EV sales were largely driven by China with 56 percent of total EV sales in the first quarter coming from this market, said Abhik Mukherjee, a research analyst at Counterpoint.

In China, while overall passenger vehicle sales fell 12 percent in the first quarter, EV sales rose a remarkable 29 percent year-on-year, the report said.

The removal of subsidies for NEV purchases in China led to lower-than-expected EV sales in January.

cut prices on its models globally in January, and then other car brands announced similar price cuts on their models starting in February, which led to improved sales of EVs, the report said.

During the February-March period, nearly 40 automakers, including , , , Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Honda and Toyota, cut the prices of their vehicles by hundreds to tens of thousands of dollars, which eventually stoked a competitive price war in China, the report noted.

Initially, it was thought that the price war would soon be over and the automakers would benefit from increased sales. However, as the price war continues to stretch, several Chinese automakers have reported reduced earnings or even losses, according to the report.

Globally, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 73 percent of all EV sales in the first quarter, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) made up the rest.

The top 10 EV models accounted for 37 percent of total passenger EV sales in the first quarter, with Tesla's Model Y remaining the world's best-selling model, followed by Tesla's Model 3 and BYD's Song, Counterpoint said.

In the first quarter, Tesla's Model Y became the world's best-selling passenger car model, even surpassing traditional fuel cars, according to the report.

By the end of 2023, global EV sales are expected to exceed 14.5 million units, said Soumen Mandal, senior analyst at Counterpoint, adding that US EV sales are expected to grow significantly this year with the implementation of the tax credit subsidy.

China NEV retail up 10.5% MoM to 580,000 in May, CPCA data show

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China NEV retail up 10.5% MoM to 580,000 in May, CPCA data show

NEV penetration at retail in China was 33.3 percent in May, up 6.7 percentage points from 26.6 percent a year earlier and up from 32.3 percent in April.

Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles (passenger NEVs) in China were 580,000 units in May, up 60.9 percent year-on-year and up 10.5 percent from April, according to data released today by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

This is higher than the preliminary figure of 557,000 units announced by the CPCA on June 7, and in line with its estimate released on May 23.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 388,000 in May, or 66.9 percent of all NEV retail sales. This was up 44.9 percent year-on-year and up 7.5 percent from April.

Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) accounted for 192,000 units in May, contributing 33.1 percent of NEV retail sales, an increase of 109.1 percent year-on-year and up 17.22 percent from April.

Retail sales of all passenger vehicles in China were 1.742 million units in May, up 28.6 percent year-on-year and up 7.3 percent from April.

NEV penetration at retail in China was 33.3 percent in May, up 6.7 percentage points from 26.6 percent in the same month last year and up from 32.3 percent in April.

The penetration rate of NEVs was 57.1 percent for local brands, 23.0 percent for luxury brands and 4.0 percent for mainstream joint venture brands.

From January to May, retail sales of passenger NEVs in China were 2.42 million units, up 41 percent year-on-year.

Wholesale sales of passenger NEVs in China were 673,000 units in May, up 59.4 percent year-on-year and up 11.5 percent from April.

This means that the penetration of NEVs at wholesale in May was 33.7 percent, up 7.2 percentage points from 26.5 percent a year ago and down from 33.9 percent in April.

The penetration of Chinese domestic brands' NEVs at wholesale in May was 50.4 percent, compared to 33.6 percent for luxury brands and 4.3 percent for mainstream joint venture brands.

From January to May, wholesale sales of passenger NEVs in China were 2.78 million units, up 48 percent year-on-year.

In May, China exported 92,000 passenger NEVs, of which BEVs accounted for 92.6 percent. This represents a year-on-year increase of 135.7 percent, up 1.2 percent from April, and contributed 30.5 percent of all passenger vehicle exports.

Looking ahead, the CPCA believes it would be normal if Chinese passenger car sales in June were lower than a year ago, as China halved the purchase tax on major fuel vehicles starting June 1 last year, allowing for a big increase in sales that month.

BYD confident of gaining higher market share in next 3-5 years, says president

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Power battery industry faces serious overcapacity in China, says Changan chairman

China will need 1,000-1,200 GWh of power battery capacity by 2025, but the industry is already planning for 4,800 GWh of capacity, according to Changan's chairman.

The chairman of one of China's largest automakers has warned about oversupply in the power battery industry, at a time when the risk is a growing concern.

China's power battery industry is currently suffering from a serious overcapacity and the sector is bound to return to a rational state, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, said today in a speech at an automotive forum in the southwestern Chinese city of Chongqing.

China will need 1,000-1,200 GWh of power battery capacity by 2025, but the industry is currently planning for 4,800 GWh of capacity, Zhu said.

In a speech at the 2022 China Auto Forum on November 9 last year, Zhu said the tight supply of chips and batteries facing China's new energy vehicle (NEV) industry had eased, but their expensive prices stand out, seriously affecting the profits and production of NEV companies.

High battery prices were caused by factors including raw material price increases, capital speculation, sellers' hesitation to sell and middlemen hoarding, Zhu said at the time.

Zhu's latest comments come as the issue of power battery overcapacity is a growing concern.

In a research note yesterday, Morgan Stanley analyst Jack Lu's team said that despite a near-term recovery in orders for China's battery industry, there will still be excess battery capacity and price competition is inevitable.

More and more second-tier battery suppliers are adopting increasingly aggressive pricing strategies, and may have to do the same, Lu's team said.

Power battery overcapacity is an industry consensus, but in the first quarter, expansion of power and storage batteries continued, the official Economic Information Daily said in a report yesterday.

In 2022, China's power battery shipments were about 480 GWh, while the installed power battery capacity was only about 260.94 GWh. Even counting the export volume and the installed power battery capacity in the segment including construction machinery, the current inventory pressure of the whole industry is still high, the report said, citing industry research institute GGII.

In the next few years, the structural overcapacity of power batteries will intensify, and the industry will enter a deep reshuffling stage, with a degree of competition that may be more severe than imagined, the report said.

China's power battery installed capacity in April was 25.1 GWh, up 89.4 percent year-on-year and down 9.5 percent from March, according to data released by the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance (CABIA) on May 11.

The power battery production in April was 47.0 GWh, up 38.7 percent year-on-year and down 8.3 percent sequentially, according to the CABIA.

May's data is expected to be available in a few days.

China EV battery installations in Apr: BYD regains top spot over CATL in LFP market

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BYD confident of gaining higher market share in next 3-5 years, says president

Wang believes that the NEV change is a technological revolution, and only companies with core technologies will survive.

is confident of gaining a higher market share in the next 3-5 years, said Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of the Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) giant, at its 2022 annual shareholders meeting today.

Commenting on the price war in China's auto industry, Wang said BYD's scale, brand and technology advantages will help it outperform its peers in future competition.

From January to April, BYD retail sales in China rose 79.2 percent to 702,608 units, taking the No. 1 spot with an 11.9 percent share, according to a ranking released last month by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

FAW-Volkswagen sold 509,774 units at retail during the period, up 1.4 percent year-on-year, and ranked second with an 8.6 percent share, according to the ranking.

BYD sold 240,220 NEVs in May, up 108.99 percent from 114,943 units in the same month last year, according to data it released on June 1. The CPCA is expected to release its May sales rankings in the coming days.

On March 29, Wang said BYD aims to become the largest automaker in China by the end of this year.

The NEV industry is poised for big changes in the next 3-5 years, and the pace of change is now accelerating, Wang said today, adding that this is expected to accelerate further in the future and could exceed expectations.

For BYD, the toughest period is over and it will have a strategic opportunity period, Wang said.

BYD will leverage its existing industrial chain advantages, cost advantages, technology advantages and product advantages to further optimize its brand image and lead China's NEVs to the world, he said.

BYD has been vigorously expanding its production capacity in various regions since last year, and has now basically solved the problem of imbalance between supply and demand, Wang said.

The company's current production capacity and output of components can meet future market demand, he said, adding that BYD has made arrangements to meet the growing demand in overseas markets.

Wang believes that the NEV change is a technological revolution, and only companies with core technologies will survive.

If a company simply assembles, the probability of surviving is small, he said.

Companies that survive will also have a good strategic direction, because the industry's opportunity window is only 3-5 years, and the choice of models and technology lines is important, according to Wang.

He highlighted the importance of quick decision-making mechanisms, saying that auto companies tend to be large and have long decision-making mechanisms, but the NEV market is like a battlefield, requiring quick decisions.

Wang also mentioned his views on smart driving, saying that in the absence of changes in laws and regulations, smart driving technology is likely to be only an assist and difficult to commercialize.

In fully autonomous driving, any one safety accident will expose car companies to great responsibility and may drag down the sales of the whole model, he said.

Full CPCA rankings: Top-selling models and automakers in China in Apr

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