Daily Archive: March 15, 2023

CATL to reach new price agreement with automakers as soon as end of Mar, report says

The price of lithium, a raw material for batteries, has accelerated its decline, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate falling RMB 7,500 per ton to RMB 302,500 per ton today.

New price agreements between Chinese power battery giant and some local automakers are expected to be reached this month, at a time when battery raw material prices continue to fall.

CATL's lithium rebate policy is progressing steadily, and it is now at the practical stage of signing agreements with some car companies, local media Cailian said today, citing sources close to the battery maker.

These agreements are expected to be reached by the end of this month at the earliest, the source said.

CATL's plan was first reported on February 17 by local media outlet 36kr, which said it is not aimed at all customers, but rather at several strategic customers, including (NYSE: NIO), (NASDAQ: LI), and .

The core terms of the partnership include that CATL will settle a portion of the price of power battery supply with car companies at a rate of RMB 200,000 ($28,970) per ton of lithium carbonate for the next three years.

At the same time, car companies signing the partnership will be required to commit about 80 percent of their battery purchases to CATL, according to the report.

CATL management first acknowledged the move during the company's earnings call on March 9.

CATL's lithium sharing plan is not for the purpose of lowering prices, but rather the company already has some mineral resources and does not want to reap windfall profits, its management said.

CATL wants to be able to share with long-term strategic customers and is moving forward with communications to that end, the company said.

Prior to that, Li Auto and NIO both said that they had ongoing discussions with CATL when asked about the topic in their respective earnings calls.

CATL's move comes as lithium carbonate has been falling for months.

Today's quotes for industrial-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium carbonate in China were both down RMB 7,500 per ton, with the latest average prices at RMB302,500 per ton and RMB 340,000 per ton, respectively, according to My Steel.

($1 = RMB 6.9040)

CATL confirms it's negotiating new prices with EV makers

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XPeng earnings preview: Q4 to be soft with promotions hitting margins

"We expect generally soft results and a weak 1Q23 outlook due to challenging demand and pricing dynamics," Edison Yu's team said.

US | XPeng HK

XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) will report fourth-quarter earnings on Friday, and as usual, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their preview.

"We expect generally soft results and a weak 1Q23 outlook due to challenging demand and pricing dynamics," the team said in a research report sent to investors yesterday.

Soft fourth-quarter

XPeng will report its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal 2022 on Friday, March 17, before the US markets open.

It delivered 22,204 vehicles in the fourth quarter, above the upper end of the guidance range of 20,000 to 21,000, but down 46.82 percent year-on-year and down 24.91 percent from the third quarter.

XPeng's previous revenue guidance for the fourth quarter was RMB 4.8 billion to RMB 5.1 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 40.4 percent to 43.9 percent.

"We expect a soft quarter with deliveries already reported at 22,204, above management's guidance range (20,000-21,000), but with promotional activity hitting margins," Yu's team wrote.

The team expects XPeng to post revenue of RMB 5.4 billion yuan and a gross margin of 11.5 percent in the fourth quarter.

They expect XPeng's vehicle margin to be 8.5 percent in the fourth quarter, down 3.1 percentage points from the third quarter, and adjusted earnings per share of RMB -2.33.

The current analyst consensus in the Bloomberg survey is for revenue of RMB 5.7 billion, gross margin of 12.1 percent and adjusted EPS of RMB -2.25.

For the first quarter, Yu's team expects deliveries to be around 19,000-20,000 units and for gross margin to drop to single digits as price cuts take hold.

XPeng deliveries in January and February were 5,218 and 6,010 units respectively, for a cumulative total of 11,228 units. Insurance registration figures for the past two weeks suggest that the company did not see a significant improvement in deliveries in March.

Uncertainty in 2023

The key to XPeng's relevance going forward is to win back market share, and that could take several quarters to achieve, which has created significant uncertainty this year, Yu's team said.

Demand for the company's flagship SUV, the G9, has clearly been disappointing, despite mostly positive reviews, the team said, adding that they expect XPeng to potentially make pricing or SKU adjustments to the SUV in the coming months.

XPeng's new P7i sedan should help with order volume, but there won't be materially beneficial until the second quarter, the team said.

Most importantly, XPeng's upcoming Model Y competitor, the G6, needs to reach at least 5,000 units per month by the end of the year to be considered a success, the team said.

The team now expects XPeng to be on track to deliver 145,000 vehicles in 2023, a 10,000-unit downward revision from earlier, taking into account the decline in G9 sales.

How can capacity utilization be improved?

If XPeng's sales continue to be weak, its management may need to get creative to improve its capacity utilization, Yu's team said, adding that the easiest way to do that would be to sign some large fleet deals.

That may be hard in China, considering and GAC have stronger positions in the taxi and ride-sharing segment, but XPeng recently signed deals with some local car rental companies to buy its P7 sedan, the team noted.

XPeng entered into a strategic partnership with local car rental company eHi Car Services on July 19, 2022, and delivered the first few hundred cars to the latter.

On January 9 this year, XPeng signed agreements with car rental company China Auto Rental and 's travel service platform Xiaolinggou Travel Technology, and completed the delivery of the first XPeng P7 vehicles in Ningbo, Zhejiang province.

In addition, XPeng has restarted its expansion efforts in Europe, where large fleet deals could make sense due to the region's high percentage of corporate fleets and low availability of cheap BEV options, Yu's team said.

"We note BYD has an agreement with SIXT for 100,000 EVs and XPeng's vehicles fall into a similar price point. BYD also just announced a 5,000 unit agreement with UK's Octopus EV," the team wrote.

Another option is to partner more deeply with traditional OEMs on EVs and robotaxis, which could come in the form of equity investments or strategic alliances, according to the team.

XPeng offering discounts to clear P7 inventory, facelift to launch next week, report says

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Survey Shows Pathway To Speeding Up EV Adoption In Rural Areas

Regardless of where we live, we should all have the opportunity to enjoy the benefits provided by electric vehicles. These benefits range from the reduced cost of operation, the reduced need for maintenance and the improved performance, to the fact that electric vehicles have no tailpipe emissions. Everybody’s health stands to gain from reducing local […]

More Chinese EV makers promise no price cuts as price war intensifies consumer wait-and-see sentiment

EV makers including , and Denza have all introduced 90-day price protection policies.

(Image credit: Neta)

As the auto price war in China continues, some electric vehicle (EV) makers are beginning to make it clear that they will not cut prices in an attempt to dispel the wait-and-see sentiment of potential consumers.

EV makers including Leapmotor, Neta and Denza have all introduced price protection policies, after (NASDAQ: LI) introduced a similar policy and (NYSE: NIO) made it clear that the company would not cut prices.

Leapmotor announced yesterday that for consumers who purchase any of its models during this month, they will get the difference back if the price drops within 90 days or if the company offers additional cash discounts.

This is in line with a policy introduced earlier this week by Li Auto, whose salespeople said it was designed to make clear to consumers that its models would not be reduced in price.

Neta, Hozon Auto's EV brand, announced today that consumers who order its flagship sedan, the Neta S, by April 30 will not have to worry about the model's price dropping within 90 days.

If the price of the model drops within 90 days of the consumer's purchase, Neta will refund the difference.

Notably, along with the announcement of the price protection policy, Neta began offering an RMB 23,000 ($3,340) discount for the lowest-priced model of the Neta S, bringing the model's starting price down to RMB 179,800 from the previous RMB 202,800, valid until the end of April 30.

Neta models on sale also include the Neta V and Neta U, which start at less than RMB 150,000 and are not covered by its price protection policy.

Denza, 's premium brand, announced that if consumers who purchase its vehicles during the month see a drop in official guide prices will receive a rebate for the difference.

Auto and Volvo Car's jointly held Lynk & Co brand also began offering a 90-day price protection policy that expires on April 30.

The increasing number of car companies joining the price war has led to an increased wait-and-see mood among consumers to avoid seeing price cuts soon after purchasing a car.

An NIO executive said yesterday that they noticed Li Auto's move and the company had considered whether to issue a similar policy.

But for NIO, it has previously made it clear that prices will not be lowered, the company's assistant vice president of sales operations Pu Yang said at a media event yesterday, adding that NIO is not only not cutting prices for 90 days, but prices will not change for a longer period of time.

(1 $= RMB 6.8843)

NIO won't get involved in price war, exec says

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